The Political Mirror and the Market
In Brazil, the left and the right have discovered an old trick: changing clothes in the middle of the ball. Only in our case, the ball is the National Congress and the music is the market.
In March 2023, in Brasília, we saw PT lawmakers advocating for billion-dollar tax exemptions for large companies — exactly the kind of policy that PSDB supported in 2016 with Michel Temer in the “bridge to the future.” In the same corridor, deputies from PL, while criticizing the “bloated state” on national television, were negotiating subsidized credit for agribusiness, something they would call “businessman’s grant” if it came from another government.
This inversion is not new. In 1998, in Rio de Janeiro, Anthony Garotinho governed with practices typical of the old right, although elected as a popular symbol. In 2004, in São Paulo, José Serra advocated for health programs worthy of progressive manuals. And on August 14, 2023, PSOL — known for resisting privatization — supported a hybrid model in the port sector, while União Brasil gave passionate speeches about the importance of SUS.
For investors, this game of mirrors means one thing: ideological predictability is an illusion. Today, discourse and practice do not walk hand in hand, and economic policies can turn 180° according to political convenience. This impacts everything from exchange rates to entire sectors of the stock market, such as energy, logistics, and agribusiness.
If in politics the sides are confused, in the market the investor needs to see what is behind the mask. Because, while Brasília changes its outfit, capital does not wait for the next act to decide where to dance.
