Comrades in the cryptocurrency circle, tonight the ETH market feels like a volcano about to erupt, with a tense atmosphere that is suffocating! '3900 is just a smoke screen to confuse the masses; 3970 is the trump card carefully hidden by the main force!' Tonight, ETH's movements are pulling the strings for every investor.
Technical analysis: Three key levels, a life-and-death gamble
3970: The 'hellfire wall' that is hard to cross
Today, ETH made three attempts to break through 3970.60, but was precisely 'headshotted' at the same location, as if a mysterious force was blocking it from behind. There is an accumulation of over 57.8K ETH sell orders here, forming a strong resistance trend line on the weekly level, like an insurmountable chasm.
According to analysis, if the night session's volume suddenly increases to the level of 2 billion USD (1.5 times the current volume), ETH may violently break through this 'fire wall'. But we must be wary of the main force's 'fishing orders' that lure in buyers; what appears to be a smooth road is actually fraught with danger, and once you enter, it may lead to irreversible consequences.
3900: The 'life-and-death arena' for bulls and bears
Currently, the 1-hour candlestick is consolidating with reduced volume, fluctuating only within ±20 points (3905.71 - 3905.70 in intense back-and-forth), and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 0.5%, resembling the calm before a storm, indicating a significant trend is imminent tonight.
However, key indicators are flashing red. The委比 is only +0.19%, and the bull ammunition is nearly exhausted; the MACD has a golden cross under water, which seems like a signal for a rise, but is actually a 'death smile.' Once the price surges sharply, the bears will strike like fierce beasts, launching a frenzied attack.
3860: The 'slaughter target' for bears
The daily chart's support zone of 3880.94 - 3860.94 is ETH's last defense line. If this level is broken with high volume, it will be like a domino effect triggering a cascade of liquidations down to 3750 - 3700. The large buy order at 3700.00 suggests that the main force may have a bottom-fishing plan, but this looks more like a beautiful lie, luring investors into a trap.
News: A mixture of positive and negative factors, igniting a market bomb
Positive news: BlackRock's ETH spot ETF final revision submitted
BlackRock's ETH spot ETF final revision was submitted this morning, undoubtedly a heavyweight positive surprise that fills the market with anticipation. However, the probability of the SEC being dovish has surged to 70%, like a cold shower dampening some investors' enthusiasm.
Negative news: The 'data leak' on the eve of the US CPI
On the eve of the US CPI, sudden reports of a 'data leak' have emerged, with hedge funds aggressively hoarding ETH put options, causing the fear index to soar. This is like a hidden bomb that could explode market panic at any moment.
On-chain whale activity: A mysterious address deposits a large amount of ETH
A mysterious address deposited 80,000 ETH (worth 310 million USD) into Binance 2 hours ago, like a time bomb, with the detonator already in place, ready to trigger a violent market shake-up at any moment.
Strategy: A life-and-death decision, no hesitation allowed
Aggressive bull strategy
If you choose to be an aggressive bull, you could place a breakout buy order at 3930, targeting 3965—4000.65, but be sure to set a stop loss at 3900. This is a game for the brave; once successful, the rewards are plentiful, but the risks are ever-present.
Cold-blooded bear strategy
If you choose to be a cold-blooded bear, when 3880 is broken, short with a target of 3860, and set a stop loss at 3900 when it rebounds. This requires you to have firm conviction and decisive action, capturing opportunities in the market's decline.
Consolidation warning
If ETH is still oscillating around 3905±20 points in the early morning, immediately close your position, as a major change is about to occur. The market will not remain calm forever; after a consolidation, there is often intense volatility.
Finally, a blood and tears warning: A massive sell order is buried at the 4000 level, and even if it breaks through, it will be 'tail poison'. It is recommended that everyone take partial profits above 3980; greedy investors will surely be countered by the market. The cryptocurrency market is ever-changing, and retail investors must be cautious; may every retail investor emerge unscathed from this storm and reap their own wealth.
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