Even though unfavorable labor market data typically leads the Fed to lower interest rates, Trump, who wants everything to be big and great, baselessly claimed the data was fake and fired the BLS Commissioner, accusing her of manipulating the numbers. Because this is another non-political office, to make it more apolitical, he replaced her with a Republican supporter of his... 🤔🤭

President Trump has not been critical of the BLS when those statistics went his way.

But now, when they don’t, these statisticians are suddenly the work of Democrat supporters...

You Can’t Lie to the American People!

So, investors, unlike the all-knowing president, believe the unfavorable data, and the probability of a September rate cut has greatly increased, which would be good for the markets. The question remains as to how the introduced tariffs and the president's further considerations on imposing tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals will play out. He really loves tariffs, but the consequences are uncertain. It's also possible that people will end up paying for the tariffs and inflation will rise...

** And what was the story with the BLS and the Commissioner's dismissal, according to today's available reports? **

In the context of recent events at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), no evidence of systematic data manipulation by agency employees has been found. The accusations that have recently emerged are political in nature and relate to standard statistical procedures that have been politically reinterpreted.

In August 2025, President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. The reason was a revision of employment data for May and June 2025, which showed 258,000 fewer jobs created than originally reported in the preliminary estimates. President Trump subsequently accused the agency of "fraud" and "falsifying" data to damage his image.

* Standard Statistical Revisions vs. Manipulation *

It is important to distinguish between standard statistical practice and actual data manipulation. The BLS routinely revises its estimates as it receives more complete and accurate data from individual states and employers. This process is transparent and is a necessary part of producing the most accurate economic statistics possible. Preliminary data is released earlier so that markets and analysts have timely information, but with the understanding that it will be refined later.

* Experts agree: No evidence of manipulation. *

Economists and former BLS officials agree that there is no evidence of intentional data manipulation. Although the revision that drew criticism was significant, it was within the range of statistically possible deviations and is considered a normal technical process.

Concerns about politicization and threats to credibility:

Despite the lack of evidence of wrongdoing by the agency itself, the political attacks on the BLS have raised concerns about the politicization of this independent institution. The credibility of BLS data is crucial for financial markets, for companies making investment decisions, and for wage negotiations. Questioning the integrity of statistics without solid evidence can undermine this trust. The BLS has internal data integrity guidelines in place to protect information from unauthorized access or revision and to ensure that data is not compromised by falsification.

* In conclusion, * while loud accusations of data manipulation have been made, these claims have not been substantiated by evidence and are dismissed by the professional community as unfounded.

This was a standard statistical process that was placed in a political context.