In crypto futures trading – where the market is constantly volatile and emotions can easily be swept along by price waves – uncertainty is the nature of the game. No one, even with decades of experience, can predict with 100% accuracy that a placed order will win.
👉 The harsh truth that must be accepted: Trading is not a game of certainty, but a game of probability + discipline. The winner is the one who:
Always have a clear strategy.
Good risk management.
Knowing that a losing trade does not define you.
📊 A low winrate strategy but high RR still yields profits
Assume you have a strategy with a Winrate = 40% and Risk:Reward (RR) = 1:3. This means:
For every 10 trades → you win 4 → profit 12R
Lose 6 trades → lose 6R
👉 Total: Net profit = +6R
🔥 This is the mindset of a smart investor: you don’t need to win often, just need to win big – lose small.
Many newcomers to the market are often obsessed with a high win rate (winrate 80-90%), but they overlook an important fact: Low RR = losing everything in one loss.
🔍 Train your probability mindset = Backtest + Discipline
To develop the mindset above, you cannot rely on intuition. You need to backtest at least 50-100 real trades to:
Know the actual winrate of the strategy.
Evaluate average RR after each trade.
Determine whether this system is reliable or should be discarded.
✅ Advice:
Use tools like TradingView, Journaling tools (e.g.: Edgewonk, Notion…) to record each trade.
Don’t fear being 'wrong'. Every loss is a piece of data for you to adjust the strategy.
In the world of crypto futures, the one who survives the longest is the one who understands probability and controls emotions, not the one who wins the most.
"Trading is not about being right or wrong – it's about how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong."
Trade like a statistician, not a gambler.
Wish you success.
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Dr. Profit.