Conclusion first: this round of the crypto bull market is likely to end by the end of this year. If you cannot see the market rhythm clearly now, you may fall into a trapped situation again by the end of the year.

The core reason lies in the resurgence of inflation in the U.S., making interest rate cuts unlikely. After Trump took office, the most challenging issue emerged—inflation is rising again. This directly leads to one result: the difficulty of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is increasing, and relying on monetary easing to support the market by 2026? It is almost impossible.

Therefore, the market rhythm is likely to be as follows:

Bitcoin reached its peak in October (expected around $130,000);

Altcoins and Ethereum still have 2 months of performance time, December will be the final climax;

Afterward, it will enter a downward channel, just like a banquet that must eventually end.

Do not fantasize that 'the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy for employment'; historically, when the Federal Reserve has followed presidential directives to hard-press employment, it has ultimately ended in failure.

The truth of this bull market is: retail investors have long been 'dizzy' from being played.

Bitcoin's rise from $15,000 to $120,000 seems like a bull market, but most altcoins are more like a rebound after the 2021 crash, not a full bull market.

The true market rhythm is 'institution-led':

It was initially smart money entering the market: when the Federal Reserve signaled rate cuts, Bitcoin rose from $15,000 to $40,000 (institutional cost around $50,000);

After the ETF approval: institutional funds will lift Bitcoin from $40,000 to $70,000 (this is the only phase where retail investors can make money);

After January 2025: Bitcoin rises to $100,000, institutions start unloading secretly, and the price gradually falls to $70,000 (during this period, trading volume is huge, but retail investors remain unaware);

The worst hit are the altcoins: once institutions unload, the wild speculators worry about being stuck with them, leading to a direct crash by the end of November! After March 2024, there will be almost no new retail investors to take over; the current crypto market has long been hollowed out, leaving only the project teams lying flat and the retail investors trapped.

The last opportunity: a possible surge in the market due to an interest rate cut in September!

Forecasting the upcoming trend:

There is a high probability of an interest rate cut in September, and Bitcoin gradually rises to previous highs in market expectations;

In October, it surged to $130,000, which is the 'exit point' for institutions (their average cost is $100,000, guaranteeing profit);

In November and December, altcoins will rise as well, but can at most reach half of their historical highs (do not chase the rise!).

However, at the end of the year, market liquidity is poor, and institutions, large traders, and retail investors may all flee together; institutions may not be able to unload everything, and what remains can only be sold in the next round.

How long will we have to wait for the next bull market? The earliest will be in the first quarter of 2027.

After this round of the bull market ends, don’t rush to buy the dip; the next cycle is likely to start no earlier than the first quarter of 2027. The intermediate volatility period may be longer than expected, so investors stuck should not rush to cut losses, and those who haven't entered should not blindly chase high prices.

What should we do now? Three life-saving reminders:

Do not chase Bitcoin after it peaks in October; institutions are waiting to unload around $130,000;

Altcoins must take profits before December; do not trust the 'New Year rally';

Those who are stuck should not rush to cut losses; wait for the next cycle (2027) to find an opportunity to free yourself.

The bull market cannot continue indefinitely; retail investors have already been 'confused' by the institutions' strategies, and in the last 2 months, it is crucial to recognize the rhythm and not to be the ones cleaning up after the banquet ends.

Do you think Bitcoin can rise to $130,000? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.