๐ Summary of Your Trade Thesis:
Current Trend: ETH is bullish, up ~+1.96%.
Resistance Zone: $3950โ$4000 (psychological and technical).
Thesis:
Near-term long: Price may push to ~$3950 before sellers step in harder.
Mid-term short: Once ~$3950โ$4000 is reached, expect a possible reversal or rejection.
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๐ Trading Opportunities:
1. Long Opportunity (Short-Term):
Entry: Current price or on a slight dip.
Target: $3950.
Stop-Loss: Somewhere below recent support (~$3800?), depending on your risk appetite.
Risk: If sellers overwhelm buyers earlier, rejection might come before $3950.
2. Short Opportunity (Medium-Term):
Entry: $3950โ$4000, ideally on confirmation of rejection (e.g., wicks, volume divergence).
Target: Dependsโ$3700, $3600, or lower if trend breaks.
Stop-Loss: Above $4000โ$4050 (if you believe that's a fakeout zone).
Risk: If ETH breaks through $4000 with strength (volume + momentum), this short gets invalidated.
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โ ๏ธ Important Considerations:
Macro Events: Any upcoming Fed news, ETF updates, or Ethereum Foundation-related events?
BTC Correlation: Is BTC leading the market or lagging? ETH often follows BTC sentiment.
Volume: Watch closelyโif ETH approaches $3950 with decreasing volume, a rejection is more likely.