At the age of 36, I often think back to the days when I was 17, squatting in the gutter of a repair shop. My hands were covered in grease, and my biggest dream was to own my own repair shop — a goal that took me 6 years to achieve. However, later, due to the impact of the larger environment, I had to painfully transfer the business I had worked hard to build. The turning point of fate often comes unexpectedly; through a friend's guidance, I plunged into the crypto world.
In 5 years, my account grew from 500,000 to 60 million. Some say I am lucky, others guess I have insider information, but only I know that these 2482 days and nights resulted in a seemingly 'clumsy' yet extremely effective survival logic. Today, breaking down and sharing these experiences may help you avoid some detours.
The most heartbreaking truth of the market: outside of understanding, everything else is a bubble.
After 9 years of struggling in the secondary market, I have seen all kinds of investors, totaling more than 10,000 people. But those who can achieve financial freedom through crypto trading can be counted on fingers — no more than 10, with a success rate of less than 1%.
Why? The answer lies in that often repeated yet misunderstood phrase: 'You will never earn money beyond your understanding.' Most people rush into the market, either relying on news and chasing hot topics or making random trades based on feelings, without even understanding the capital logic behind the K line — how can they make money?
I have summarized 6 core logic principles for short-term trading. They seem simple, yet they have helped me avoid countless traps:
1. Only act when the trend is clear; don’t be a gambler trying to 'guess the top and bottom.'
When the coin price is consolidating at a high level, don't rush to shout 'it's peaked'; the inertia of the trend often pushes out a new high. Conversely, when it’s consolidating at a low level, don't rush to catch the bottom; panic may lead to even lower lows.
The key is: wait. Wait for the signal of a trend change to be clear, wait for the bulls and bears to be separated, and wait for the market to signal the direction with actions. Only then should you enter the market, and your win rate will significantly increase.
2. During consolidation, learn to 'lie flat'; 90% of losses stem from 'itchy hands.'
Consolidation is a stage where the forces of bulls and bears are stalemated; the K line is like being paused. Any action during this time feels like walking in the dark with eyes closed. I have seen too many people who couldn’t help but trade back and forth during consolidation, paying a pile of fees, making their positions increasingly chaotic, and ultimately finding themselves out of bullets when the real trend arrives.
In this wave of $WIF, how many people frequently traded during the consolidation period, only to either get thrown off the bus or be stuck halfway up the mountain? Remember, no trading during consolidation is not cowardice, it's about preserving strength.
3. Buy on bearish lines, sell on bullish lines? Understand the cycle before applying this logic.
Many people regard 'buy on bearish lines, sell on bullish lines' as truth, but overlook the premise: this is the logic of daily-level games.
When the daily line closes down, it means that the bears have the upper hand for the day, but a downward closing line after a series of pullbacks may indicate that the bulls are gathering strength; conversely, a bullish line represents strong buying pressure, but a bullish line after continuous highs may be a disguise for profit-taking. Don't mechanically apply this; consider the position and volume.
4. The rhythm of decline hides the secret of rebounds: gradual decline, slow rebound; sharp decline, quick rebound.
The speed of a decline often indicates the strength of a rebound: if the coin price falls slowly, like an old lady strolling, then the rebound is likely to be slow; but if there is an accelerated decline, like being pushed sharply from a height, it is more likely to trigger a quick rebound — this is the natural repair after market panic.
Remember, don’t panic during sharp declines, but be cautious during gradual declines.
5. Pyramid positioning: The survival technique of value investing in the crypto world.
Regardless of bull or bear markets, pyramid positioning is always my trump card. Simply put: the lower the price, the more I add to my position; the higher the price, the less I add.
For example, if you are optimistic about a coin, first take out 30% of your position to test the waters. If it drops by 10%, then add 40% to your position (at this point, the cost is averaged down); if it continues to fall, use the remaining 30% to add. This method can control risk while ensuring you hold enough shares when the trend reverses. This is not a 'clumsy method,' but a certain weapon against volatility.
6. Consolidation is not the end; the trend change is the signal.
When a coin continuously rises or falls, it will inevitably enter a consolidation phase. At this time, two things are most taboo: selling everything at a high level due to 'fear of heights' during consolidation or buying everything at a low level due to 'catching the bottom' during consolidation.
Consolidation is the process for both bulls and bears to accumulate strength. The longer the consolidation lasts, the stronger the explosive power when the trend changes. The real operational node is the moment the consolidation is broken: if the high-level consolidation breaks downward, decisively liquidate; if the low-level consolidation breaks upward, boldly follow.
Final thoughts.
There has never been a 'foolproof' secret in the crypto world. My journey to today relies not on predicting the market, but on maintaining discipline. This logic sounds simple, but very few can achieve it — because it goes against human nature: it tells you to wait, but you want to act; it tells you to keep a light position, but you want to go all in; it tells you to cut losses, but you want to hold on.
The market is never short of opportunities, but it lacks prepared people. Instead of chasing hot topics and asking about codes every day, it's better to calm down and refine your trading system. Remember, what can withstand bull and bear markets is never luck, but rather understanding and discipline.
