What is the probability that $BTC will refresh its historical high??

On August 8, on-chain data analyst Murphy released a market analysis indicating that the BTC market is currently exhibiting the following characteristics:

1. Price Drivers and Capital Status

BTC broke through $117,000 yesterday mainly due to the favorable stimulus from 'Trump signing an executive order to include cryptocurrencies in 104K', but this is only a short-term emotional impact and has not resulted in a substantial influx of large amounts of capital. The short-term price increase lacks sustained capital support.

2. Investor Sentiment Characteristics

The short-term investor activity index has continued to decline since the peak in July, with no significant signs of recovery. The panic sentiment low during recent price corrections is milder compared to December 2024 and February 2025, indicating that current investor sentiment is overall neutral, with no extreme panic or excessive optimism.

3. Chip Structure and Trend Outlook

URPD data shows that $117,000 is the highest pillar in the current chip structure and is a key battleground for bulls and bears. The dual-anchor structure received support at $112,000, and it is highly likely that a chip redistribution will occur in the range of $112,000 - $117,000, forming a new accumulation area, accompanied by a shift in sentiment. If BTC can stabilize above $117,000 again, the next target is set to challenge a new high.

In summary, the current BTC market has broken through the price under favorable stimuli but without large-scale capital influx, with neutral sentiment and chips in a critical adjustment phase. $BTC #比特币流动性危机 #美国加征关税