Bitcoin has continuously broken records, first surpassing the 120,000 dollar mark, driving the market to improve overall— from mainstream altcoins to Hong Kong stock crypto concept stocks, all generally welcome a rising trend.
But one abnormal phenomenon is worth noting: unlike the enthusiastic atmosphere when it previously broke 69,000 and 100,000 dollars, this time the market is particularly 'quiet.' Although there are reports of new highs on social media, community chats are silent, lacking the frenzied shouts of 'it's taking off.' Behind this calmness is the realization that investors are caught in the 'fear of rising': a continuous increase of over 46% for three months and constantly refreshing highs have significantly raised the market's excitement threshold. The percentage increase in Bitcoin seems considerable, but the sense of stimulation it brings is diminishing, even making some feel numb.
Deeper changes lie in the shift of narrative logic. Despite frequent regulatory good news and continued institutional entry, Bitcoin is gradually becoming a macro asset to hedge against the US's unchecked fiscal spending. This round of new highs is not merely driven by market speculation, but rather a result of deeper macro trends.
Previously, although the crypto market experienced a broad rise, market sentiment was not fully ignited, especially as the performance of altcoins, while rising alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, did not meet expectations. Data shows that most of the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization increased, with HBAR, SUI, and others showing significant growth, but the core issue lies in the 'relative increase': Ethereum took five months to struggle back to the 3050 dollar high, while Bitcoin increased by another 17% in the same period. This phenomenon of 'Bitcoin being strong while altcoins lag behind' has plagued the market ever since institutional funds concentrated on Bitcoin due to factors like the 2024 spot ETF.
Now, although altcoins are generally rising, there are still doubts about whether the 'altcoin season' has truly arrived. After all, the shadows of the past VC trust crisis, large unlocks crashing the market, and the diversion of funds to meme coins have not completely dissipated. Currently, investors' excitement has quietly shifted from Bitcoin's new highs to whether altcoins can explode.
At its core, the expectations for altcoins are closely related to the current state of Bitcoin: its price has surpassed the tolerance range of most retail investors, and as it continues to hit new highs, market concerns about its upward potential are also intensifying. Institutions are precisely leveraging this psychology, continuously driving up Bitcoin's price through capital such as ETFs, causing retail investors to waver repeatedly between FOMO (fear of missing out) and fear.
However, the market is not without positive signals: the most significant support comes from the institutionalization and compliance process— the SEC is expected to approve a series of altcoin spot ETFs including LTC, SOL, and XRP in the second half of 2025. Furthermore, a new coin recently sold out 500 million dollars in just 12 minutes during its public sale, further confirming the market's ample liquidity.
However, the true establishment of confidence still requires investors to cautiously evaluate these positive changes. Perhaps the next moment when the market collectively cheers 'it's taking off' will eventually belong to the altcoins that are poised for a surge.
