Trump's policies ignite the ETH bull market: Pension entry and Fed shift drive the dual engines
Policy Breakthrough Point: Trump signed an executive order on August 8, allowing $9 trillion worth of 401(k) pensions to directly invest in cryptocurrencies (including ETH). If 10% of funds flow into the market, it will bring in $870 billion in incremental funds, equivalent to 22% of the total crypto market value. Institutions have already positioned themselves—Coinbase's institutional wallet increased its holdings by 470,000 ETH (about $1.9 billion) within 30 days, while BlackRock's ETH trust holdings reached 832,000 ETH, up 218% compared to Q4 2024. Stimulated by this, ETH surged from $3574 to $3728 within 24 hours, with trading volume soaring to $7 billion.
Fed's rate cut expectations strengthen the foundation for ETH bull market
• Policy Shift Signal: San Francisco Fed President Daly stated, 'The timing for rate cuts is approaching, possibly more than twice this year,' with the market betting on a 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
• Historical Validation Effect: During the 2020 Fed's massive liquidity injection, ETH had an annual increase of 600%. If Trump successfully pressures the Fed (intending to fire Powell and appoint a close ally who favors rate cuts), the 'digital anti-inflation asset' property of ETH will explode again during the easing cycle.
Technical Offensive and Defensive: $3900 has become a watershed for bulls and bears
Bullish Breakthrough Signal:
1. On-chain Activity Hits New High: ETH daily active addresses at 1.07 million, surpassing the peak of the 2021 bull market by 23%; cross-chain assets to Ethereum surged by $420 million in value over 30 days (Solana downtime accelerated fund migration).
2. Technical Pattern Resonance: Successfully broke through the BOLL middle track at $3836, the double bottom structure confirmed support at $3400, MACD bullish momentum building. If it stabilizes above $3820, breaking through $3900 will open up space to $4000-$4350.
Short Position Risk Warning:
• RSI approaching overbought zone, technical selling pressure at the $3953 BOLL upper band;
• If pension investment details are not clarified by August 15, it may trigger profit-taking;
• Over 90,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, short positions adding to short-term volatility risks.
Long-term dividends and short-term black swan balance strategy
Strategic Opportunity:
Trump's 'Cryptocurrency National Strategy' has taken shape—ranging from breaking down pension barriers to planning to include 200,000 bitcoins in reserves, ETH as the leader in smart contracts will continue to benefit. If it breaks through $3953, the probability of a short-term surge to $4000 exceeds 70%; driven by the dual engines of pension inflows and rate cuts in the long term, the likelihood of breaking the previous high ($4800) is high.
Risk Hedging Points:
1. US Stock Linkage Risk: ETH has a 30-day correlation of 0.65 with the S&P 500 index, need to be wary of systemic risks from US stocks;
2. Regulatory Detail Variables: The Labor Department may require pensions to be undertaken only by compliant custodians, potential blood loss for small exchanges;
3. Extreme Risk Control Operation: Spot position suggests setting a stop loss at $3542, hedging can allocate 10% position for put options (to guard against policy delay risks).
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