1. Market Observation
Trump announces the nomination of Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the vacancy at the Federal Reserve Board, replacing Adriana Kugler for the remainder of the term until January 2026. Miran has long supported Trump's interest rate cut proposals and has proposed structural reforms for the Fed, including stripping its banking supervisory powers, which some observers view as a significant challenge to central bank independence. Although Miran's term only lasts until January next year, and the Senate confirmation process may delay his participation in the FOMC meeting from September 16 to 17, the market has interpreted this as a clear signal of a shift towards looser monetary policy. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Labor and other agencies to reassess and facilitate investments in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies for retirement savings plans like 401(k).
In this regard, Bitwise research director Ryan Rasmussen predicts that if crypto assets occupy 1% to 10% of 401(k) plans, it could lead to an inflow of $80 billion to $800 billion. Analyst Phyrex believes that the impact of this initiative is comparable to the approval of spot ETFs, marking Bitcoin's formal entry into mainstream compliant investment channels and becoming an allocation option for retirement plans. This will introduce a large amount of stable long-term capital, help reduce market volatility, and further reinforce Bitcoin's status as a 'digital gold' store of value, while also paving the way for other countries to follow suit and the compliant development of RWA and DeFi.
In the local market, companies like CaoCao Mobility and others are competing to layout RWA in Hong Kong stocks, driving corresponding stock price increases. HashKey chief analyst Jeffrey Ding points out that companies with deep RWA tokenization capabilities and strong technical R&D capabilities in areas such as smart contracts, cross-chain technology, or metaverse applications will have a competitive advantage. These companies can use technological innovation to bring traditional assets such as real estate and bonds onto the blockchain, thus enhancing asset liquidity and optimizing investment portfolios. Ding also warns investors to be cautious of companies that merely chase hot trends and lack substantial technological investment and long-term strategic planning. Such enterprises often rely excessively on market hype, and their projects may harm investor confidence and trigger regulatory risks due to a disconnect from real user needs. Therefore, listed companies should ensure that their Web 3.0 layouts are deeply integrated with their core business to avoid blindly following trends.
Bitcoin broke through $117,500 this morning. The CryptoQuant weekly report points out that after BTC price reached an all-time high of about $123,000 in July, it entered a 'bullish cooling' phase and a narrow range oscillation phase due to slowing liquidity and profit-taking. The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is a possible bullish catalyst. Glassnode has observed that the overall supply in the range of $110,000 to $116,000 remains light, and the market may need more time to accumulate to form a new support base. If the market cannot break through the resistance at $116,900, it will face further risks of dropping to $110,000; however, the cost line for short-term holders at $106,000 still provides support. Analyst KillaXBT points out that maintaining the monthly opening price of $115,600 is key to sustaining the upward trend, while trader Rekt Capital believes that $117,200 is the key resistance level that needs to be confirmed. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn observes that the current Bitcoin price has surpassed the cost price of short-term holders at $117,600, which may trigger profit-taking. On-chain data analysis firm Sentora indicates that although about 95% of addresses are in profit currently, there is significant resistance in the range of $116,000 to $119,000, as many holders are still in loss after buying in this range. Trader CrypNuevo also points out that market liquidity is advancing towards the next liquidity target of $119,000 after reaching $116,800. However, signs such as increased outflows from exchanges and continued net inflows to whale addresses indicate tightening supply, and the risk-reward structure leans towards the upside. If it can successfully break through $119,000, it may initiate a new round of increase.
Ethereum broke through its recent historical high this morning. Analyst Jelle notes that as the price approaches the psychological barrier of $4,000, once broken, that level may become a solid support. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes Ethereum's strength is a precursor to an explosion in the altcoin market, indicating that altcoins could see gains of 200% to 500% in the coming months. Analysis from Altcoin Vector also shows that the ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded by about 75% from May's low, successfully breaking the downward trend, injecting positive momentum into the entire altcoin sector. Institutional interest is also strong, with Nate Geraci revealing that since June, Ethereum treasury companies and spot ETFs have cumulatively purchased about 1.6% of the total supply of Ethereum, while Nasdaq-listed Fundamental Global plans to raise up to $5 billion to acquire Ethereum. Against this backdrop, Fundstrat's Tom Lee even makes an optimistic prediction that Ethereum's price could reach $16,000.
2. Key Data (as of August 8, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $116,954 (Year-to-Date +24.59%), daily spot trading volume of $38.732 billion.
Ethereum: $3,944.90 (Year-to-Date +16.98%), daily spot trading volume of $37.192 billion.
Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 60.0%, ETH 12.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: IP, XRP, ETH, BTC, OMNI
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 51.08%/48.92%
Sector performance: Layer 2 sector up 9.39%; PayFi sector up 9.97%.
24-hour liquidation data: a total of 115,938 people liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $408 million, including $53.41 million in BTC liquidations, $191 million in ETH liquidations, and $26.59 million in XRP liquidations.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($117,163.94), lower line ($114,843.86).
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($3,721.59), lower line ($3,647.89).
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price fluctuates within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of August 7)
Bitcoin ETF: +$281 million
Ethereum ETF: +$222 million, continuing three days of net inflow.
4. Today's Outlook
Immutable (IMX) will unlock about 24.52 million tokens at 8 AM on August 8, accounting for 1.30% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $12.2 million.
Space and Time (SXT) will unlock about 24.64 million tokens at 9 PM on August 8, valued at about $2 million.
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock about 1.45 million tokens on August 8, valued at about $41 million.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock about 50 million tokens at 8 PM on August 9, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $6.5 million.
Render (RENDER) will unlock about 492,000 tokens at 8 AM on August 10, accounting for 0.09% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $1.7 million.
Today’s top 100 market cap gainers: Pendle up 27.4%, Mantle up 21.1%, Aerodrome Finance up 17%, Lido DAO up 16.9%, Stellar up 15.2%.
5. Hot News
Fundamental Global plans to issue up to $5 billion in securities to acquire more Ethereum.
Chainlink launches strategic LINK reserve, surpassing $1 million LINK in storage.
Trump will sign an executive order to promote alternative assets like cryptocurrencies to be investable in 401(k) plans.
INFINIT: IN airdrop claims will open today at 18:00 for one month.
Upbit will list IP tokens in KRW, BTC, and USDT markets.
An address suspected to belong to the DFG founder cleared ETH held for more than two years, expected profit of $7.796 million.
Orca DAO proposes to stake 55,000 SOL and a two-year ORCA buyback plan.
Ethereum's on-chain trading volume reached $238 billion in July, the highest since December 2021.
Bitcoin and Ethereum's options market showed signs of bearish sentiment in August.
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
