Trump Plans to Open US Retirement Market, Cryptocurrency Welcomes Major Opportunity

On Thursday local time in the US, the Financial Times reported that Trump is preparing to open cryptocurrency, gold, and private equity to the $9 trillion US retirement market. He is expected to sign an executive order as early as this week to allow alternative investments beyond traditional stocks and bonds in 401k retirement plans.

A 401k is a common retirement savings tool in the US, allowing employees to invest for retirement with tax benefits, and employers also match contributions. Although investing in cryptocurrency through a 401k has not been completely prohibited, actual investments have been limited due to warnings from the Department of Labor, lack of open platforms, and conservative attitudes from employers.

The scale of the US 401k retirement market is staggering, with total assets reaching $8.9 trillion as of Q3 2024, accounting for about 20% of total US retirement assets. Funds are primarily invested in traditional assets, with 66% in mutual funds, and equity funds dominating.

The global cryptocurrency market size is $3.92 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 60.4%. If the executive order is signed, a 10% influx of 401k funds into the cryptocurrency market would inject $870 billion, equivalent to a 22.2% market increment. This would fundamentally change the market structure, potentially increasing Bitcoin's dominance to 70-75%, initially increasing volatility but enhancing stability in the long run. In an ideal scenario, Bitcoin's market capitalization could rise to $3 trillion, with prices expected between $150,000 and $170,000.

In addition, Wall Street private equity giants are also seeing new opportunities. Firms like Blackstone and Apollo are actively collaborating with Vanguard and Empower, and if they successfully integrate into 401k plans, the private equity sector could attract hundreds of billions in new assets. This represents not only a significant shift in US financial policy but also a historic turning point in the global digital asset landscape, warranting close attention from investors.