An old saying in the crypto world goes: 'When good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news.' ETH can't break 3900; it's not that the market lacks confidence, but the big players are holding back—first pushing up prices to accumulate, then selling off to harvest.
1. News: The good news has been fully priced in, the market has entered the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' phase.
In the past month, the market has been frantically speculating that 'Trump's tariff policy is good for ETH', with institutional funds pouring in, and ETF inflows reaching a record 36.
But here’s the problem: when everyone knows it’s good news, the big players have already laid their plans in advance, now just waiting for retail investors to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) to rush in, and then they will sell off.
History does not lie—In December 2024, ETH faced massive selling near 4000, followed by a plunge of 66% 14.
2. Technical: 3900 is a 'death resistance', the big players are ambushing here.
ETH is currently at a key resistance zone (3600-4000), a position that has repeatedly become a top since 2021 4.
Net Taker Volume reached -418 million USD, the second highest in history, indicating that large funds are frantically selling off 17.
RSI overbought + volume-price divergence, a typical 'bull trap' signal, a classic method of big players to push prices up and sell off 10.
3. Trump’s tariffs? Not candy, but a bomb!
Tariff policies stimulate the market in the short term, but in the long term, it will trigger a tightening of global liquidity, with funds withdrawing from high-risk assets (like ETH) 25.
Once market sentiment turns, ETH may follow BTC in a sharp decline, retesting the 2500-2700 support level 14.
Conclusion: The big player is sharpening their knives, and the retail investors should run!
Short term: ETH may repeatedly tempt buyers in the 3800-4000 range, attracting retail investors to take over.
Medium term: Once the good news is realized (e.g., ETF inflows slow down), the big players will sell off, and ETH may plunge 25%-35% 47.
Strategy:
Do not chase the highs; around 3900 is a high-risk area, better to miss out than to be a bag holder.
Set a stop loss; if it falls below 3600, the trend may reverse, so cut losses in time.
Wait for deep dips to buy; if ETH falls to 2500-2700, that would be the real buying opportunity.
Remember: In the crypto world, only a few people make money; when everyone is bullish, danger is already approaching!
People are more important than anything else! If you are still wandering in confusion, take a look at @crypto Guo Ge to help you seize every wave of the bull market.