A thunderbolt in the crypto circle! Trump's executive order ignited the crypto market, and after a brief consolidation around $3888, Ethereum (ETH) instantly entered 'rampage mode'. Behind this dual resonance of policy and capital is a profound transformation capable of reshaping the market landscape.
Policy nuclear bomb: the $8.7 trillion pension floodgate opens
Trump's latest executive order directly opens the investment channel for the US 401k pension (with a scale of up to $8.7 trillion, approximately half of China's GDP for six months) into the crypto market. This means that even a mere 1% allocation of funds would inject over $80 billion in incremental funds into ETH, the impact of which is self-evident.
More importantly, the policy combination is not limited to this—Trump has simultaneously halted enforcement actions against crypto trading platforms, equivalent to giving the market a 'reassurance pill'. Under dual favorable conditions, ETH surged over 5% in a single day, breaking through the $3900 mark, while Bitcoin even briefly soared to $116,000, instantly igniting market enthusiasm.
The Federal Reserve's shift: interest rate cut expectations become ETH's 'booster'
At the same time, the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve escalates. According to the New York Times, he has drafted documents to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and plans to appoint a 'dovish' confidant to succeed him. If the policy shifts from 'hawkish' to 'dovish', and a loose monetary environment is restarted, ETH may replicate the madness of 2020—when the Federal Reserve released substantial liquidity, ETH surged 600% in a year.
The market has long sensed the signal: as the leader in the smart contract field, ETH possesses the safe-haven attributes of 'digital gold' along with ecological innovation vitality, often becoming the biggest winner during a loose monetary cycle.
The technical indicators have issued a clear bullish signal
From the market perspective, the bullish characteristics of ETH have gradually become clear:
- BOLL band breakout: strongly standing above the middle track at $3836, the upper track at $3953 is within reach;
- Double bottom structure formed: a solid support is established around $3400, and the MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum continues to accumulate;
- On-chain data explosion: 24-hour trading volume surged to $23.7 billion, the interaction volume of smart contracts reached a peak for 2024, and ecological projects such as X.game demonstrated strong capital-raising abilities.
Analysts point out that if ETH can stabilize above the resistance level of $3953, it is expected to quickly challenge the $4000 integer mark, as the technical pattern meets the conditions for a bull market initiation.
Risks and opportunities coexist
In the short term, two major risks need to be cautious: first, the correlation between ETH and the S&P 500 index is as high as 0.65 over 30 days, and fluctuations in US stocks may trigger a correlated pullback; second, short positions have surged recently, with over 90,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, necessitating caution against a 'roller coaster' market.
But in the long run, Trump's 'crypto national strategy' has surfaced—ranging from opening up pension funds to the market to planning to include 200,000 bitcoins into national reserves, the United States is elevating cryptocurrencies to 'strategic assets'. As the core of the smart contract ecosystem, ETH will undoubtedly continue to enjoy policy dividends.
The policy tailwind has arrived, and the bull market horn has sounded. Is the price of ETH at $3888 the starting point or just a midway station? The answer may lie in the market's next charge.
