I. News Front:

Today's variables ignite the market:

  1. Vietnam Tariff Strike: The U.S. imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, with a 40% exorbitant tax on transshipped goods, impacting the global electronics chain and possibly increasing risk aversion.

  2. Dollar Shadow War: Trump's 'zero tariff entry to Vietnam' policy is seen as a signal for dollar repatriation, posing withdrawal risks for crypto market funds.

II. Technical Analysis: $11,400 is the last line of defense for the bulls.

From the 1-hour candlestick chart, BTC is currently in a weak oscillation pattern:

  1. Key Levels Exposed: The price is testing around $116,000-$117,000 repeatedly; if it fails to hold, it may trigger a chain of stop-loss orders.

  2. Moving Averages Capping: The 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with short-term rebounds repeatedly blocked.

  3. Volume Trap: Continuous shrinkage in trading volume indicates the bulls are powerless to counterattack, while the bears are also watching policy directions.

III. Shenlong's Personal View:


BTC currently shows weak oscillation in technical analysis, with key levels at $116,000-$117,000 under contention. Moving averages are bearing down, but the MACD shortening green bars suggest declining bearish strength; bottom-fishing funds may be lurking near historical lows.

Short-term:
Policy determines life and death—if only targeting Vietnam, BTC may oscillate between $114,000-$118,000; if it escalates to a global tariff war, breaching $114,000 may lead to a drop to $11,000, with altcoins facing sell-offs.

Long-term:
Need to watch two major variables:

  1. Inflation Hedge: If tariffs push U.S. CPI above 4.5%, BTC's 'digital gold' attributes may attract institutional entry, challenging $120,000.

  2. Dollar Trend: If the trade war drags the dollar index below 105, the crypto market may welcome a rebound window.

Final Reminder:
Tonight at 22:00, the White House will hold a press conference; policy details determine life and death. Remember: long candles in bear markets, sharp drops in bull markets; controlling position size is key!

IV. Trading Advice:

  1. Light Position Traders: Place orders near $116,000; stop loss if it falls, reduce positions if it rebounds to $118,000.

  2. Aggressive Traders: Watch the ETH/BTC ratio; if ETH rises against the trend, it may be worth betting on a return of altcoin season.

  3. Preferred Safe Havens: USDT, Gold ETF; stay away from high-leverage contracts.

Tariff Black Swan Strikes! Can BTC's lifeline at $11,400 hold tonight? Policy determines life and death—buy the dip or escape?

Opportunities are fleeting, with a correction imminent. Buy the dip for spot trading; altcoins are waiting for you to reap high profits! Doubling is not a dream; tap on the avatar to follow Shenlong and join the bull market feast! Follow Shenlong Trends

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