In early August, the already turbulent personnel situation at the Federal Reserve suddenly accelerated—Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned, and the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was personally dismissed by Trump on the day the non-farm payroll data was released. Just as the market had not yet fully digested the personnel upheaval, the White House clearly stated: "A decision on the Federal Reserve Chair nominee will be made this weekend." On August 7, sources revealed that as Trump's advisors sought a successor to Powell, Federal Reserve Governor Waller was gradually becoming a popular candidate for Federal Reserve Chair. Trump's advisors were impressed with Waller because he was willing to base policies on forecasts rather than current data, and he has a deep understanding of the entire Federal Reserve system.
In a previous FOMC meeting, he, along with Governor Bowman, advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, becoming one of the two members to "vote against" in 32 years. This stance aligns with Trump's call for rate cuts, establishing him as a "credible monetary easing ally" in the political game between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
The competition for popular candidates for Federal Reserve Chair
According to reports, President Trump has formally initiated the interview process for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with three core candidates currently locked in: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
Hassett is currently the Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and was the chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Board during Trump's first term, a staunch supporter of his economic policy ideas; Walsh is a former Federal Reserve Governor, who participated in responding to the financial crisis during his tenure from 2006 to 2011. Although he has a hawkish stance, he has maintained a close relationship with Trump and is quite prestigious on Wall Street; meanwhile, Waller is currently the most closely watched candidate in the market. As a sitting Federal Reserve Governor, he recently voted in favor of a rate cut at the latest FOMC meeting, aligning his stance closely with Trump's call for easing.
According to Federal Reserve appointment rules, the Federal Reserve Chair must be a sitting governor. Current Chair Powell's term will end in May 2026, while the governor's term continues until January 2028—if he chooses to continue serving as a governor after stepping down, Trump's candidate range will be limited when he appoints the new chair in the future. Therefore, the recent resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler is seen as a crucial window. Trump has now selected Stephen Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who also calls for rate cuts, to serve as a Federal Reserve governor. This move not only affects the monetary policy path but may also reshape the macroeconomic governance direction for the remaining time of his term.
Currently, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the odds among the three candidates are gradually widening: Waller's support has risen to 45%, leading Hassett (27%) and Walsh (19%). The market seems to be betting on this current governor, who is "familiar with the rules and has a dovish stance," as possibly Trump's most reassuring successor. It is also noteworthy that newly nominated Federal Reserve Governor Miran has particularly praised Waller, considering him a suitable candidate for Federal Reserve Chair after Powell.
Christopher Waller: A crypto-friendly Federal Reserve Governor
Waller was born in 1959 in Nebraska, USA. After obtaining a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Nebraska, he pursued a PhD at Washington State University. He then taught at Indiana University, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Notre Dame, focusing on monetary theory, financial intermediaries, and macroeconomic policy. He also researched European integration at the University of Bonn in Germany. In 2009, he joined the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, leading the research department for more than a decade and transforming the famous FRED database into a "toolbox" for the global economics community. At the end of 2020, he was nominated by Trump to enter the Federal Reserve Board and became an FOMC voting member, with a term ending in 2030.
Waller's examination of crypto assets has been calm to the point of being harsh from the very beginning. He once compared most cryptocurrencies to "baseball cards"—lacking intrinsic value, their prices depend on a fragile balance of emotions and confidence. For such highly volatile speculative products, he insists that "the market bears its own risks" and that taxpayers should not be left to pay for investment failures.
However, regarding stablecoins, Waller has shown a different face—a forward-looking selective support. As early as 2021, he publicly pointed out that if there is sound regulation and sufficient reserves, stablecoins can not only reduce payment costs and improve transaction efficiency but may also become tools to expand the international use of the dollar and consolidate its status as a reserve currency. At that time, stablecoins were still viewed by many as accessories to the crypto market, but Waller had already seen their strategic value in the global payment system. Since then, in several speeches in 2024 and 2025, he has repeatedly urged Congress to legislate to prevent runs and disruptions in the payment system, allowing stablecoins to truly become a secure "synthetic dollar."
In addition, Waller has a positive attitude towards decentralized finance (DeFi). At the 2024 Vienna Macroeconomic Symposium, he traced back the reasons for the existence of financial intermediaries from an economic perspective: facilitating transactions, reducing costs, and managing risks. He then turned to DeFi—this model that utilizes blockchain, smart contracts, and distributed ledger technology to enable transactions without traditional intermediaries. He believes that the technology behind DeFi can indeed bring efficiency improvements, such as 24/7 instant settlement, automated contract execution, and asset tokenization, but its core value is more of a complement rather than a substitute for traditional finance. Stablecoins, distributed ledger technology (DLT), and smart contracts—these tools originating from the cryptocurrency sector—can fully feed back into centralized systems, improving the efficiency and security of traditional markets.
Waller insists that innovation should be led by the private sector, with the government's role being to "build the highways"—infrastructure like FedNow is the lane, while the forces driving the vehicles should be market competition. However, he also warns that if non-bank payment institutions and decentralized platforms lack regulation, they may accumulate leverage and create bubbles, ultimately jeopardizing financial stability.
He is both a skeptic of crypto assets and an early discoverer of stablecoin potential; able to analyze the technology and economic logic of DeFi while adhering to the Federal Reserve officials' bottom line for system safety. On the balance between innovation and risk, Waller does not attempt to let one side completely overwhelm the other, but insists on drawing a clear, executable boundary between the two—allowing for a runway while also not abandoning the responsibility of guarding the levee.
Waller taking over? The next move for the Federal Reserve
If Waller ultimately takes over as Federal Reserve Chair, the market may welcome a rhythm that is completely different from Powell's. In monetary policy, while Waller uses data as a guide, he tends to quickly shift to support economic growth after inflation pressures ease. He has repeatedly opposed excessive tightening in the FOMC and has promptly expressed support for rate cuts when economic data is weak. This flexibility not only helps align with the White House's fiscal stimulus and economic expansion goals but may also allow the capital market to feel the warming of liquidity in advance, indicating a slowdown in the economic cycle.
In the field of crypto and payment innovation, Waller's appointment could bring a clearer and more predictable regulatory path. He will actively support the promotion of stablecoin legislation, allowing it to integrate into payment and financial markets under safe and compliant conditions. His recognition of DeFi technology means that Wall Street and crypto platforms may gain more policy space in tokenization, smart contracts, and 24/7 settlements. In other words, the Federal Reserve under Waller's leadership may maintain the dollar's dominant position in the global financial system while leaving room for the compliant crypto ecosystem to grow.
From the investors' perspective, this combination not only reduces policy uncertainty but also releases potential benefits on two tracks: one is the asset price boost brought by monetary easing, and the other is the new market opportunities that may arise from the integration of crypto and traditional finance.
Summary
However, precisely because Waller maintains a high degree of coordination with the White House on policies, this has also raised concerns among some market participants about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Critics argue that if monetary policy is more influenced by political rhythms at crucial moments, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to maintain absolute neutrality between inflation pressures and election cycles. This concern is not only echoed on Wall Street but also appears in comments from some academics and former officials—who warn that once the market begins to doubt the Federal Reserve's independence, its credibility cost may rise rapidly, affecting the pricing of dollar assets and international capital flows.
According to procedures, even if the President decides to nominate, Waller's appointment still requires further review and confirmation by the Senate. This step tests his support in Congress and will serve as a barometer for the market to assess the direction of policy. Before the final announcement, investors can only price in the rumors and interpretations, waiting for the next move from the White House and Congress.