Talk about my expectations for AAVE in this bull market
Aave currently holds a 67% market share in the DeFi lending sector, making it a leader in this niche.
During the major bull market in 2021, AAVE's total revenue (Fees) was $343 million, and the token's ATH price was $666. By 2024, AAVE has already achieved $320 million in revenue so far, and if we estimate this year's revenue based on last month’s (October) income of $32 million, it will definitely break historical records this year, as shown in the figure below.
From the perspective of the token's price, AAVE is currently priced at $256, which is still a 60% decline from its ATH. If you still believe that Fees is a valid core driving indicator, then theoretically, AAVE may still have about three times the opportunity.
Again, we can further combine other indicators for auxiliary judgment. For example:
AAVE's MC/FDV ratio is currently 0.94. The current circulating supply of AAVE is 14.9 million, accounting for the vast majority of the total supply of 16 million tokens. Additionally, about 1 million tokens are kept in the protocol's treasury for staking rewards for the safety module and to incentivize liquidity providers. This means that AAVE tokens are currently in a fully circulating state, and there will not be large-scale token unlocks in the future.
AAVE's MC/TVL ratio is currently 0.16. Generally, the smaller this ratio, the more undervalued the project may be. Interested friends can make a list to compare with similar DeFi projects.
Of course, we can also analyze the K-line trends simultaneously. Moreover, we can combine some news aspects to look at the current news, such as:
Aave has proposed to integrate BlackRock's tokenized fund BUIDL into its GHO stablecoin module (GSM), which can diversify Aave's revenue sources and increase RWA exposure.
Finally, whether to participate in trading specifically depends on your personal planning and position management.
Currently, AAVE has finally given a decent pullback.
The current price has not yet reached the daily EMA200, and I will continue to wait for it to retrace to this position.
If it reaches the level, and combined with oversold signals, I will consider bottom-fishing.