Although the market has not been volatile in recent days, the amount of information is not small. What seems like a boring oscillation is actually quietly laying down many hints.
Bitcoin: weak rebound, low trading volume, hard to say it has stopped falling
Since Bitcoin hit bottom on August 3rd, this round of rebound still hasn't shaken off the 'weak' label. There is no significant volume, and it hasn't returned to the key position; overall, it is still in a daily-level descending channel.
If it continues to shrink and oscillate like this, I personally think it looks more like a continuation pattern of a decline, and the 112,000 level will inevitably be lost.
Currently, the market is temporarily balanced between bulls and bears, and it is difficult to see who holds the dominant position. In the short term, we can only exchange time for space. From the intersection of the trend line and the descending channel, this change should happen no later than the 17th; during this period, it is crucial to pay attention to whether the highs and lows can gradually rise, which is key to judging whether the decline has stopped.
Ethereum stands out again, while altcoins generally fall without rising
ETH remains strong, having once again breached the upper limit of the previous upward channel; whether it can stabilize at the middle Bollinger band is key to the next market trend. In contrast, most mainstream altcoins continue to follow Bitcoin's rhythm, struggling in the daily downward trend, completely failing to keep up with ETH's momentum; this is the most obvious differentiation in the current market.
$PEPE Currently, it is temporarily supported at the lower edge of the converging triangle, precarious. To be honest, I won’t act without significant volume and a stop in decline; I’d rather wait and see. $SUI A bit better, showing signs of stabilization and attempting to change the slope of the descending channel, but the rebound strength is also average. If it can reach 3.1 or even 2.85 in the short term, that would be an ideal point to consider.
Overall, the market is still in the process of a fourth wave adjustment; the main strategy is to watch more and act less.
Trump signs an executive order? Policy dividends forcibly extended?
Just as the market suddenly exploded with a heavy piece of news, this level of good news is quite significant, even a bit like 'forcibly extending life.' Although short-term pressure still exists, from a medium to long-term perspective, this can basically be seen as the starting point of a policy dividend.
ETF sees a slight inflow, institutional sentiment is clearly warming up
Yesterday, ETF funds flowed back in again, with BTC inflows of 90 million and ETH of 30 million. Although the amounts are not large, the warming of market sentiment is evident.
More crucially, institutional giants like Treasury companies, Saylor, Tom Lee, and Placeholder are almost collectively bullish—Tom Lee even said directly: buying ETH now is like buying BTC in 2017, with a future ETH/BTC exchange rate target of 16,000!
Standard Chartered Bank also supports ETH Treasury companies, believing they are more attractive than spot ETH ETFs because they can participate in staking and bring higher returns. This means that if staking ETFs are approved in the future, it will be a FOMO-level trigger.
Is the spark of DeFi Summer already igniting?
Today, ETH stabilized at 3700, $SOL also breaking through 170; many altcoins have started to move, especially the performance of the DeFi sector is the most impressive.
Assets like ENA, FLUID, #PENDLE, and #DYDX are leading the gains. The stablecoin pool in collaboration between ENA and AAVE can even offer an annualized return of 12%.
During the oscillation period, watch more and act less, with the main focus still on ETH and DeFi infrastructure.
The current market is in a typical oscillation bottoming phase; BTC is still in a weak adjustment, but the structural differentiation brought by ETH standing out may be the starting point of opportunities.
Expectations for DeFi Summer are heating up, and the mid-term value of #public blockchain and #DeFi infrastructure still holds. Maintain patience and wait for structural breakthroughs or market confirmations. It’s not aggressive now, but we can’t be absent either.
If you also see these changes, don’t be scared away by short-term fluctuations; the real market trend is likely brewing.
That’s all for this article! If you are confused in the crypto space, consider joining me in positioning and harvesting from the market makers!
