Who will be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
The choice of the next Federal Reserve Chairman will affect the entire direction of crypto. Currently, Powell's term ends in 2026, but if there are changes in policy direction, along with Trump's strong demands, the new chairman is likely to be more friendly towards crypto, even giving it the green light.
From the perspective of a rate cut in September, I think the probability is still quite high, because recent economic data shows that inflationary pressures are easing, and there are no signs of an overheated labor market. Rate cuts usually lead to funds flowing into risk assets, and assets like Bitcoin often benefit.
As for the SEC's attitude towards liquid staking, this change is indeed very important. If the regulatory environment becomes clearer and more friendly, the barriers for institutional funds to enter the crypto market will be greatly lowered. Many large institutions are currently in a wait-and-see mode, mainly because of the unclear regulations.
I personally believe that these three factors are interconnected. If the new Federal Reserve Chairman is more open, combined with a rate cut cycle and clearer crypto regulatory policies, the overall liquidity of the market will significantly improve.
This article is purely speculative; there's really no way to analyze it right now. Everything depends on Trump's mood.