The footsteps of the bull market continue.
Despite Bitcoin being consolidated around $115,000, the DeFi protocol has quietly achieved a historic milestone of $60 billion in net deposits, and on-chain activity is thriving. At the same time, as BTC stabilizes, meme coins are once again in the spotlight, with Maxi stirring market sentiment in a posture of 'irony + full fire'.
The market is at a delicate and critical moment. This article will explore the crypto market from three dimensions: DeFi, Bitcoin macro trends, and the meme coin track, helping you to see the overall picture and possible next explosion points.
Are you ready? Let’s go 🚀
Aave: The 'silent' reviver of the DeFi market?
Speaking of DeFi, Aave's recent performance is worth special attention—not only is the price stable around $265, but more importantly, it has just become the first DeFi protocol to surpass $60 billion in net deposits! This is quite an explosive number.
📊 What are net deposits? Why are they important?
Net deposits = Total assets supplied in the protocol - Total assets borrowed.
This indicates that more people are willing to keep their money in Aave rather than borrow it, which actually reflects a confidence return towards the safety and yield of DeFi protocols. Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated that this number represents 'growing interest in DeFi among people.'
Moreover, other on-chain data is also heating up:
TVL increased from $24 billion to $34.9 billion, an increase of over 45%
Network fees rose from $48 million in June to $65 million in July
Open interest rose by 4.1%, showing that funds are quietly entering the market
Although spot and derivative trading volumes have decreased, the rising leverage ratio indicates that smart money is positioning itself.
🔍 How does the technical aspect look?
From the technical chart, AAVE is oscillating within a consolidation range, with $265 as the key support level, while $280 is the short-term breakout point:
MACD is in a slightly bearish state (-9.31)
RSI is neutral (43.3), with room for rebound
The lower Bollinger Band serves as short-term support
If it can break through $280, it will open an upward channel to $310-$315
If it falls below $250, it may retest the $230 low
Conclusion: At this stage, AAVE is at a critical point of resonance between technical and fundamental aspects, belonging to the 'observe whether buying momentum strengthens' golden phase.
Is BTC hitting $200,000? The strongest quarter is coming, don't blink!
Every year around this time, old players in the crypto circle know: Bitcoin's golden season is about to begin!
From historical data, the fourth quarter is the strongest quarter for BTC, with an average increase of 85.4%, and the hit rate for explosive growth is particularly high—this is not a coincidence, but rather a rhythmic explosion brought about by every Fed easing. Risk assets love this environment, and BTC is the king of risk.👑
💸 $125,000 is the key threshold; breaking through it will have potential.
Where is the 'ceiling' of this round of market? First, see if $125,000 can turn into support. This price point is not just an integer threshold; it represents a key watershed of market sentiment. If it can break and hold, and combined with favorable conditions in the fourth quarter, hitting $200,000 for BTC would not be a dream.
The market is actually quietly pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, even though inflation remains stubborn, investors have started to take risks. If the Fed actually takes action, BTC is likely to welcome a wave of explosive market movements by the end of the year.
📊 Technical + financial aspects: There is support, but it still lacks a final push.
From the chart, BTC seems to be bottoming out in the range of $110,000 to $115,000, with ETF funds providing strong support—$1.5 billion net inflow in the first four days, and recently another $90 million added. In simple terms, money is gradually flowing back, which is a good phenomenon.
However, don’t rejoice too soon; August and September have always been the 'dead zones' for BTC, and during this period, the annual returns have been flat or even negative. So don’t expect a direct surge in the short term; $125,000 may only break through after October.
⏳ Sprint time window: October-November
To grasp the key of this market wave, remember these two words: October.
Historical data shows that October to November is the period when BTC is most likely to surge, with an average increase of nearly 68%. Once this period coincides with favorable interest rate cuts, combined with technical breakthroughs, it would be a textbook-level 'bullish trio'.
What about December? Typically, the gains converge, turning into fluctuations or high-level consolidation, as large funds begin to take profits. So to impact $200,000, it needs to gain momentum in October-November to be realistic.
✅ Conclusion: Observe and prepare now, wait for the wind to come.
The next 45 days will see whether the Fed will cut interest rates and whether BTC can hold and break through $125,000. As long as both conditions are met, Bitcoin has the opportunity to trigger a historic upward mode.
Don’t rush to put all in, and don’t just watch the excitement without action. Now is the stage for observing and planning, and once the signals align, you need to act decisively.🚀
Maxi Doge: Is the meme coin not dead, just making a comeback?
Glassnode's latest report depicts a calmer Bitcoin market. The spending volume of short-term holders (STH)—a key indicator tracking how many recent buyers are selling—has dropped to 45%, falling below the neutral line of 50%.
The percentage of profits spent by short-term holders is a risk indicator with respect to the price of $BTC.
This means that even if the trading price of $BTC is slightly below $115,000, the cashing out of newcomers will decrease. The on-chain tracking platform Checkonchain also confirms this. According to its SOPR analysis, many investors who bought near the peak of $123,000 are now selling at breakeven—typical weak hands behavior. But this is exactly what a strong market needs: uncertain traders exit, replaced by steadfast buyers.
Whenever the Bitcoin price stabilizes, the risk appetite in the market shifts—yes, high-risk, high-reward meme coins are about to take the stage again!
We've seen this scenario before. In May 2021, when Bitcoin was near its historical high at that time, the price of $DOGE reached $0.7376. Fast forward to the end of 2024: as $BTC soars after the election, the price of $DOGE is once again on the verge of breaking $0.50.
And now, we are witnessing the same scenario unfold again:
After DOGE and SHIB, a brand new character enters the scene: Maxi Doge ($MAXI).
🌪️ What is Maxi Doge?
$MAXI is a meme project born for the '1000x leverage era'.
It's not about joking; it's about causing trouble:
Built on Ethereum
Current price: $0.000251
The presale has raised over $440,000
Staking annual interest rate as high as 593%
25% of the total supply is allocated for fund collaboration, indicating potential for future exchange listings.
Its brand positioning is extremely extreme, very 'crypto circle':
“No sleep, pure adrenaline, destroying TradingView's testosterone”
This meme coin not only mocks the crypto culture but also could very well become the representative of explosive growth in the next bull cycle.
Maxi Doge may be standing on the starting line for takeoff.
Summary: Three major trends converge, and the market is poised to take off.
In this game of capital flow on the chain, three main lines are being played simultaneously:
Aave leads the on-chain recovery of DeFi: $60 billion in net deposits is a strong signal of confidence, and the sector may welcome a catch-up market.
Bitcoin is consolidating and gathering strength: short-term chips have been cleared, and the key resistance of $125,000 is in sight, with September possibly becoming a turning point for the year.
Meme coins are making a comeback, Maxi Doge is grabbing attention: the phase of old and new players alternating, high-volatility varieties are becoming increasingly attractive.
📢 What to do next?
If you are:
Conservative approach: Pay attention to whether BTC can successfully hold at $115,000 and break through $125,000, while assessing ETF fund trends;
Aggressive approach: Keep an eye on Aave's technical trend, focusing on the $280 breakout point;
High-risk enthusiasts: Don’t miss the potential window of meme projects like $MAXI, but also be sure to manage your positions!
The market always rewards those who prepare in advance, not those who chase on impulse. Don't let emotions lead you; let data speak and signals guide your judgment.
The bull market may just be beginning.
📣 Follow market dynamics, on-chain data, and technical analysis, we will continue to accompany you to explore the infinite possibilities of crypto in the next rounds of market!
Many understand the trend, but few follow the rhythm.
The crypto circle changes quickly, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Learning to enter and exit strategically, protecting your principal, is the key to steady progress and wealth growth.✍️
Remember to DYOR, manage risks, and wish everyone a smooth sailing in the crypto circle! 🌊
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