I've been waiting for months; I originally thought the tariffs would lead to a big move, but it turned out to be a big nothing. I just want to ask, BTC and ETH, are you living up to my expectations?
These past few days, I've been staying up late every night just to catch the news, nearly becoming a nervous wreck. From important speeches by key figures in the US to employment and interest rate cut probabilities, and then the continuously dovish tariff policy rollout, it’s all finished now. The market still behaves like a dead fish, with BTC continuously oscillating and the second coin persistently rising. It’s tough to keep up with the daily ETF liquidity inflow and outflow.
Falling behind step by step, the crypto space is ultimately a place where prices rally. The news can only serve as a reference; everything still needs to be spoken through data. From the recent pullback, we can see from the inflow and outflow of BTC ETF and ETH ETF that BTC is still uncertain, but ETH has now completed the ownership change. Daily ETF inflow and outflow can roughly decide the market's rise and fall.
Currently, the second coin has returned to around 3720, close to the bull-bear dividing line. Now we can only wait. The upper resistance for the second coin at 3735 is a critical resistance on the four-hour chart. If it breaks easily, the market may continue to rise.
8/6 Market Sentiment
On August 6, BTC ETF statistics show a total daily trading volume of 2.557 billion USD, total net asset value of 146.795 billion.
BTC ETF daily net inflow of 91.6 million USD, ETH ETF daily net inflow of 35.1 million USD, has been in a net inflow state for two consecutive days.
Review of the Overall Market Trend
Mainstream
BTC: The trend of BTC continues to be weaker than the second coin. The short orders given yesterday only had the first batch filled, but the maximum retracement has little space left, and it's still being held. Today was originally waiting for the tariffs to lead to a liquidity shrink and a sell-off, but unexpectedly, it turned out to be a dud. The current order is still in, near the cost price, and the upper four-hour resistance is still looking at 115700 first, then 116800 resistance. In the short term, without directional interference from news, subsequent speculation will likely focus on interest rate cuts. The direction is still continuously bearish; hopefully, the anticipated final drop will come soon to give us a bottom-fishing opportunity before the interest rate cuts.
ETH: The second coin in recent days can only be described as both loved and hated; it's too strong, surprisingly resilient. When BTC drops, it supports it; when BTC doesn't rise, it still pulls BTC up. The orders for the second coin at 3650 and 3720 given yesterday are now in, with an average price around 3685. Currently, it’s trapped with a loss of nearly 30 USD. The position of the second coin has already formed a double top candlestick pattern on the four-hour chart, and is just one pin away. The upper resistance remains at 3735. Once this level is breached, the next wave should first look at between 3830-3840.
BTC Trend Analysis and Trading Suggestions:
Support Level:
First Support: Near 112500, the support point given yesterday is also near the lowest pin point last night. (Support is the old position unchanged; take one step at a time, if it doesn't break, just keep oscillating for trades.)
Second Support: 110900, previous high point for pinning, can be used as a short-term reference.
First Resistance: 115400 (previous high dense area), previous rebound stop point, chip concentration base.
Second Resistance: Near 116600 (previous initial pin high point), four-hour MA180 moving average pressure.
Trading Suggestions for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a 'oscillating bearish' operational rhythm:
Orders are in, still maintaining a bearish outlook. Cost is around 114900, and the additional buy position is adjusted to around 116400, stop loss at 116900.
ETH Trend Analysis and Trading Suggestions:
Lower Support Level:
First Support: 3585, near the daily level small defense, can be used as a pinning anchor point.
Second Support: Near 3475, previous low breakout failure, four-hour MA180 defense point.
Upper Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 3735, previous main cost position.
Second Resistance: Near 3770-3785, previous multiple pin high points. Once broken, look directly at around 3840 to short.
Trading Suggestions for ETH:
Yesterday's buy orders are still in; the subsequent stop loss can only be set around 3750. If it breaks, then stop loss is necessary; there's no need to hold on further. Let’s wait for the market to digest for two days and see which way the wind blows.
Regarding altcoins
Preparing to enter the market; we will wait at most three days. If it doesn’t drop further, we will enter the altcoin layout. The targets are still those few: WCT wallet plus integrated DEFI, ACH payment plus Hong Kong concept, zk or strk as the second layer ecosystem of ETH. TRU belongs to the low market cap coins of the RWA sector.
Preparing to enter the market; we will wait at most three days. If it doesn’t drop further, we will enter the altcoin layout. The targets are still those few: WCT wallet plus integrated DEFI, ACH payment plus Hong Kong concept, zk or strk as the second layer ecosystem of ETH. TRU belongs to the low market cap coins of the RWA sector.
Summary and Trading Suggestions
BTC and the second coin are looking bearish, but stop losses must be well managed. It’s time for the long-short game again, anticipating to bottom out after the last drop. If the interest rate cuts in September are really going to happen, it’s already getting late. The earlier it drops, the more beneficial it is for us.
In terms of contracts, short selling at high positions, manage stop losses well to prevent sudden pinning and contract explosions.
Altcoins are ready, just prepare the bullets; others should not move for now. The sectors and coins for subsequent ambush have been given, just pay more attention.
Mainline is clear:
Altcoins are liquidated; mainstream positions are lightly laid out for short selling + focus on the RWA sector and Hong Kong concept altcoins.
Strategy remains unchanged: Control position + structurally participate in the main sectors + avoid chasing high traps.