In the crypto market, the explosive rise of MEME coins is like a brilliant firework— the more dazzling it is, the tighter you should hold onto your wallet, because the extinguishing after the explosion is often fleeting.
In this wave of market movement, 80% is controlled by the main players (personal judgment: probability exceeds 65%). The recent trend of MEMEFI/USDT is simply a meticulously arranged 'ATM' script by the main players:
Typical tactic: During the April rise, the Bollinger Bands opened up, trading volume surged by 300%, and the main players used millions of dollars to leverage the market (this coin's circulating market value is only a few tens of millions, so the push cost is extremely low). What was the outcome? After RSI spiked to 90, it quickly crashed, while retail investors were still cheering 'the bull market is here,' and the main players had quietly sold off through OTC transactions.
On-chain evidence: Before the crash, the top ten addresses concentrated on reducing their holdings by 40%, and the exchange deposit volume doubled—this is clearly not retail trading, but the main players manipulating the market to create false prosperity!
Case reference: After the PEPE coin surged a hundredfold in 2023, it also experienced a divergence of MACD golden cross and dead cross, ultimately returning to the original price within three days, causing countless investors to suffer heavy losses.
The remaining 20% may be a 'dark horse's comeback'? But don't take it lightly. If you really say this wave of rising prices is driven by fundamentals, you must first ask yourself these three key questions:
Are there any solid positive news? For example, listed on Binance or Coinbase, or Elon Musk speaking out? Currently, social media activity is less than half of the peak in April (Santiment data shows that discussion volume has only increased by 30%).
Is the overall market environment favorable? The April surge was a speculative peak before the Bitcoin halving, and now that the ETF has just been approved, funds are concentrated on Bitcoin. What gives MEME coins, such marginal assets, the right to steal the spotlight?
Looking at the opposing positions: If there is real money flowing in, the large deposit records at exchanges should skyrocket, but on-chain data is unusually calm, more like the main players are 'painting the candlestick to lure in buyers.'
Ready to enter the market? First, think carefully about these three 'risks':
The trap of historical repetition: Neither of the two surges broke through the previous high, and the current price is oscillating around 0.0050, a typical 'bear flag pattern'; another push could very well be the final lure!
Liquidity is being squeezed: The depth of this trading pair is only a few million dollars, and the main players can easily push through the price with a million dollars; a 50% drop in MEME coins is not uncommon.
High time cost: The lifecycle of MEME coins is generally 3-6 months, and it has been 4 months since the April surge; the project party may have already cashed out and fled, leaving only retail investors trampling over each other.
