Key Takeaways:
XRP drops 19% in 3 weeks, now facing critical support at $2.65.
Whale wallets have offloaded 640 million XRP since July 9, signaling major distribution pressure.
$2.65 aligns with VWAP and 50% Fibonacci retracement — a break below may trigger a full retrace to $2.00.
XRP Price Nears Key Support as Correction Deepens
XRP is under mounting technical and on-chain pressure after falling nearly 19% from its 2025 high of $3.65 reached on July 18. As of Monday, XRP is trading around $2.99, but struggles to reclaim the $3.10–$3.00 resistance zone — a level now acting as a major barrier to recovery.
The sell-off has pushed XRP to briefly test a crucial support zone between $2.66 and $2.80 over the weekend before bouncing to form a higher low, suggesting a temporary pause in selling pressure.
Whales Exit as Market Structure Weakens
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows a sustained whale exodus, with large holders offloading over 640 million XRP since July 9, worth approximately $340 million.
This marks a prolonged distribution phase, as whale wallets — defined as addresses holding significant XRP — continue to reduce exposure, contributing to the recent price slump.
“If whales continue to exit, it places further stress on key support levels,” noted analysts tracking whale netflows.
$2.65: The Make-or-Break Level for XRP
Traders are closely watching $2.65, a level that aligns with multiple technical indicators:
It marks the Quarterly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price), a common fair-value indicator used by institutions.
It is also the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent move from $2 to $3.65.
Previously, it acted as strong resistance through the first half of 2025, before flipping into support in July.
“A sustained drop below $2.65 could trigger a full pump retrace, taking prices back to $2.00,” said crypto trader Nebraskangooner, referencing a complete reversal of the recent uptrend.
What the Charts Say
Technical analyst Dom noted that XRP held $2.80, a key short-term area of interest, but remains vulnerable unless $2.65 is defended.
Mind Trader added that XRP has now completed a 50% retracement of its rally from $2 to $3.65 — a critical point often seen as a decision zone between continuation and breakdown.
If $2.65 holds, analysts see potential for a renewed push toward $4.15, a possible new all-time high. But if support breaks, XRP risks retesting its previous range lows near $2.00, effectively erasing the gains from Q3.
Make-or-Break Week for XRP
With whale outflows continuing and volume concentration shifting, XRP's ability to hold $2.65 will determine whether the Q3 rally resumes or unravels, according to Cointelegraph.
Key levels to watch:
Support: $2.80 (short-term), $2.65 (critical), $2.00 (macro)
Resistance: $3.00–$3.10, then $3.25 and $3.65
Breakout target (if trend resumes): $4.15
