SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw continues to oppose exchange-traded products related to cryptocurrencies. This stance may have negatively impacted market sentiment, causing the probability of an $XRP XRP ETF approval to drop to 65% , from previous peaks of 80-90%.

💥Commissioner maintains her stance against crypto ETFs

To date, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has held 13 internal votes regarding various cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs). These include updates on IBIT, BITB, GBTC, Bitwise's BTC and ETH funds, and in-kind redemption protocols. All votes were approved by a 3-1 vote, with Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw the sole dissenting vote.

Crenshaw, currently the SEC's only Democrat, has consistently opposed the growing wave of crypto ETF approvals. Her strong stance sends "a clear message" that the Commissioner remains firmly opposed to crypto ETFs , including any move toward an XRP ETF.

Recently, the SEC approved the in-kind creation and redemption procedures for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, bringing them into line with commodity-based ETPs, such as those backed by gold. While this update is seen as a success for the crypto ETF infrastructure, Crenshaw's resistance is a stark contrast. His objections indicate he could pose a continuing obstacle in future votes on cryptocurrency-related proposals, including XRP ETFs.

Crenshaw's dissent extends beyond ETFs. She recently criticized the SEC staff's liquid staking guidance, calling it "legally flimsy and lacking a solid foundation in reality ." She said the guidance "piles up factual assumptions" without offering clear guidance to industry participants.

He also expressed strong opposition to the recent staff guidelines on stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. He called the document "legally and factually flawed ," warning that it misrepresents the risks of stablecoins, reprising marketing slogans like "digital dollar," which he believes risk "dangerously misleading investors . "

Such statements fuel concerns that Crenshaw's presence could further complicate the regulatory path for Ripple and the XRP ETF, especially if his influence grows or he gains more support within the Commission.

💥Sentiment on XRP ETF fluctuates on Polymarket

The odds of an XRP ETF being approved have fluctuated due to declining market confidence. Polymarket data shows a decline of up to 65%, down from previous peaks above 90%.

Following the successful launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca on July 18, the odds of an XRP ETF being approved rose to 86%. In the latest round of internal SEC voting, however, Crenshaw voted against the recent proposals filed by NYSE Arca.

Despite this impasse, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas remains optimistic. He believes the SEC could approve altcoin ETPs, including XRP ETFs. This optimism stems from the fact that XRP now meets the SEC's new listing requirements, which include the existence of derivatives traded for at least six months.

Additionally, rumors are circulating about a possible BlackRock- backed XRP ETF , especially since BlackRock’s Director of Digital Assets, Maxwell Stein , is expected to speak at the Ripple Swell 2025 conference.

While the regulatory infrastructure for crypto ETFs is becoming more robust, Crenshaw's continued opposition could still pose a stumbling block. The coming months will be crucial in determining how much influence the SEC Commissioner will have over approval decisions.

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