Current Bitcoin price: $114,715 (August 7, 2025)

Target price: $145,000 (by the end of the year) then a pullback

Number of increases: 3

Total increase: approximately +27.2%

This is a reasonable trend expectation, suitable under the backdrop of continuous ETF inflows, favorable election conditions, and signals released by the Federal Reserve. Below is a detailed analysis:

📈 Logic of three-wave upward rhythm

Time period Target price range Increase Core driving logic

First increase: Mid-August - Early September $114,000 → $122,000 , increase +7%

Expectations for ETH spot ETF heat up, funds flow back to the market, BTC rises

Second increase: Early October - Early November $122,000 → $134,000 , increase +9.8%

As the election approaches, crypto-friendly expectations strengthen, institutions begin to increase BTC allocation

Third increase: Mid-December - End of the year $134,000 → $145,000 , increase +8.2%

The Federal Reserve announces a rate cut or strongly hints at it, year-end ETF settlement funds flow back, coupled with retail investors chasing FOMO sentiment

🧠 Supporting logic behind

1️⃣ Federal Reserve policy expectations

Current U.S. economic data enters a slowdown period;

The market broadly expects a rate cut in November or December;

Rate cuts are the biggest driving force for Bitcoin's "liquidity market."

2️⃣ 2025 U.S. presidential election approaching

If Trump or other crypto-friendly candidates are leading or have increased winning expectations;

The market will preemptively layout for "policy shift," bullish for BTC;

Clear signals of crypto regulation relaxation may appear.

3️⃣ Institutional fund year-end adjustments

ETFs (such as BlackRock, Fidelity) conduct settlements and rebalancing at year-end;

BTC, as one of the best-performing assets of the year, provides institutions with the incentive to "band together at year-end."

4️⃣ Technical breakthroughs + psychological levels

$145,000 will be seen as an important resistance near historical highs;

If it successfully stabilizes near year-end, it will lay the foundation for a new cycle starting in 2026.

📊 Summary

Project Value or explanation

Current price $114,715

Year-end target $145,000

Total increase +27.2%

Upward wave Three waves (August, October, December)