Trump's reciprocal tariffs will take effect at 12 PM Beijing time on August 7, which may trigger massive tremors in the crypto market.
News:
Institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock are increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings to hedge risks, while Standard Chartered and JPMorgan predict it could reach $145,000 - $225,000 by the end of the year. Currently, Bitcoin is stabilizing around $115,000, with miner earnings hitting a new low for the year, possibly indicating a bottom, but rising energy costs may exacerbate selling pressure.
Market sentiment
Sentiment is cautiously short-term, GVI rises 12% to 38.7, futures funding rates turn negative.
Medium to long-term volatility expectations have risen, option IV exceeds the 30-day average of 18%, USDT premium breaks 102%.
Technical analysis: $115,000 is a critical line, with hidden secrets in the moving averages.
According to the latest K-line chart, see the chart.
BTC currently forms a key support level at $114,078, with the resistance level above at $116,000 hanging like the Sword of Damocles. The short-term moving average has crossed above the long-term moving average, forming a 'golden cross' bullish signal, but trading volume has not increased synchronously, indicating that bullish forces are still building momentum.
Case evidence:
After the 2024 halving, BTC has rebounded three times near $114,000, historical patterns suggest this could become a 'strong bottom'.
Miner cost line: Current average mining cost exceeds $70,000, but the coin price remains significantly above cost, limiting short-term selling pressure.
Shenlong's personal opinion:
Trump's tariffs may trigger short-term fluctuations, but institutions are increasing their holdings in Bitcoin ETFs to hedge risks. The $114,000 - $116,000 range serves as strong historical support, with three rebounds from the bottom.
Technical indicators show golden cross signals; while short-term caution is advised, the mid to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, considering halving cycles, macro hedging, and institutional entry.
Target price: $145,000 - $180,000. It is recommended to gradually accumulate in the $110,000 - $115,000 range, combined with options hedging, and to pay attention to sentiment repair opportunities after policy implementation. Risk points: Surge in energy costs or policy impacts exceeding expectations.
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