1. Tariff 'nuclear bomb' ignites the crypto world: Bitcoin faces a life-and-death test

On August 7th, Beijing time, the U.S. suddenly announced a 15% tariff on Japanese goods exported to the U.S., affecting core areas such as automobiles and machinery. The Japanese Minister of Economy and Industry urgently protested, stating that the U.S. is 'tearing up the agreement.'

Market reaction was severe:

Bitcoin plummeted 7% in one hour, falling from $81,000 to $75,500; 280,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts exceeding $900 million, and long positions accounted for 89%.

The total market value of the crypto market evaporated by $120 billion in one day, while gold ETFs attracted $1.5 billion, indicating that safe-haven funds are escaping digital currencies.

JPMorgan has detected that a giant whale placed a sell order for 30,000 bitcoins at $75,000 during the Asian session, suspected of a short layout.

Deep logic: The tariff conflict raises inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that officials are concerned that 'Q4 CPI may exceed 3.8%'; if rate cut expectations reverse, Bitcoin will be sold off.

2. XRP ETF: The 'Noah's Ark' in the dark?

As Bitcoin plummets, XRP rises by 10% against the trend, with three major catalysts emerging:

  1. ETF approval is imminent:
    According to internal SEC sources,XRP ETF may be approved on August 12, ProShares, VanEck, and others have submitted applications, expecting to raise $3 billion on the first day.

    Historical comparison: Bitcoin ETFs increased by 50% in the first 30 days after approval; if XRP replicates this trend, the target price is $4.5.

    Institutional movements: Grayscale's XRP Trust holdings have surpassed 7 billion, and Fidelity's ETF seed fund raised $800 million.

  2. Cross-border payment demand surges:
    As the core asset of RippleNet, XRP saw institutional payment volume increase by 300% year-on-year in Q2, with Japan and South Korea accounting for over 35%.

    Technical advantages: After upgrading RippleNet, the cost of a single payment has dropped to $0.00001, with a speed of 50,000 TPS.

  3. Regulatory goodwill:
    A U.S. court ruled that XRP is 'not a security', and the Japanese Financial Services Agency allows banks to hold it directly and include it in the CBDC cross-border payment pilot.

3. The life-and-death speed: How should investors choose?

  1. Bitcoin:

    Support level at $117,100; if it breaks, it may drop to $112,000.

    Suggestion: Spot investors should wait for policy clarification before building positions; contract users should set an 8% stop loss.

  2. XRP:

    • Key price levels: $3.0 (ETF expected price), $4.5 (resistance level).

    • Strategy: Aggressive investors buy at the current price targeting $4.5 with a stop loss at $2.7; conservative investors should wait for a pullback to $3.2 after approval.

  3. Altcoins:

    • SOL, AVAX, and other public chain coins are less affected, but it is recommended that the holding proportion does not exceed 15%.

    • Meme coins (DOGE, SHIB) dropped 25% in 24 hours, completely avoid!

4. Ultimate prediction: A new king in the crypto world?

Bitcoin has fallen out of favor due to high volatility, while XRP rises on the back of ETFs, regulatory friendliness, and practical scenarios.

2020: Expectations for Bitcoin ETF drove BTC from $3,000 to $64,000.

2025: The XRP ETF may trigger the same wealth transfer; are you ready?

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