Original author: TRACER
Translation: Ethan, Odaily Planet Daily
Editor's note: At the start of August, the crypto market faced drastic volatility: Bitcoin weakened in the short term, and altcoins generally corrected 20%-30%, with daily liquidation exceeding $1.5 billion. The main driver behind this has been attributed to Trump. From new tariff policies, escalating geopolitical friction, to macro data reversals and the Federal Reserve's inaction, the market is once again shrouded in FUD sentiment. At the same time, rumors of 'Trump secretly selling crypto assets' have intensified market panic, triggering a new round of chain reactions. In this article, the author dissects macro data and capital flows, proposing a judgment that differs from the mainstream: short-term corrections may be opportunities for long-term layouts, and the real 'second wave bull market' may already be brewing.
Note: The views expressed in this article are clearly positioned and do not constitute investment advice. Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers to rationally reference the analysis content and make prudent decisions based on their own situations.
Original content
Market optimism has dissipated, and adjustments are quietly approaching, with Bitcoin down 9% from its historical highs and altcoins generally correcting 20%-30%.
At the beginning of August, the market faced a severe sell-off, with daily liquidation exceeding $1.5 billion. The core question is: Is the cause of this decline severe? How should we respond?
The core trigger point of this pullback is the latest movement of U.S. President Trump:
New tariff policy proposals;
Escalation of geopolitical uncertainties;
Macroeconomic data is full of contradictions.
First, focus on that exhausting 'new tariff proposal.' Over 66 countries are listed as potential candidates for increased tariffs—the same old routine. Each time feels like a 'replay of an old script,' even giving the impression of 'manipulating the market.'
However, the U.S. government clearly will not risk economic recession just for these tariffs.
Market pullbacks triggered by this kind of operation have been seen many times. Retail investors often view such news as significant bearish signals and tend to overreact.
Think back, how many times have similar tariff threats been announced? And how many times has the market set new highs afterwards?
Therefore, there is no need to worry excessively about this; it has been a common topic.
In addition to tariffs, the recent surge in geopolitical risks has also heightened unease. The trigger is: the U.S. announced the deployment of two nuclear submarines near Russia. Is this concerning? Indeed.
But let's think calmly: do people really believe that a nuclear war will break out in 2025? This is more likely a 'pressure tactic' aimed at promoting the negotiation process.
However, what truly gives headaches to U.S. economic decision-makers (like the Federal Reserve) is the chaotic macro data from the labor market.
The market's previous bets on the 'Federal Reserve's policy shift' (interest rate cuts) have been disappointed.
More critically, the non-farm payroll (NFP) data for May and June was significantly revised down almost tenfold, which severely undermined the market's confidence in the reliability of overall macro data.
Ultimately, multiple factors have formed a powerful 'combination punch':
Interest rates remain high;
Signs of economic cooling are increasingly evident.
These factors combined have led to a significant shrinkage in institutional investor demand this week. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for the first time.
So, how do I judge the future market?
My current viewpoint is based on the recognition of the continuous accumulation of macro pressures. Currently, no major economy can create sufficient credit growth to support sustainable GDP expansion.
The key support levels I set are: Bitcoin at $110,000 and Ethereum at $3,200.
I expect that by September, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to start cutting interest rates to re-stimulate the market:
Inflation data has significantly declined;
The job market is under pressure;
Powell seems to intend to delay the interest rate cut decision.
As the time approaches, the market is expected to enter an upward trend again.
Historical patterns show that after every similar FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), the market tends to rebound strongly.
Referring to the correlation chart between M2 money supply and Bitcoin prices, the conclusion is clear: market trends follow liquidity, and the overall global liquidity environment remains relatively loose.
Therefore, the current fluctuations are essentially a global market game compounded by FUD.
Looking ahead to the fall, as the interest rate cut period begins, I expect a large-scale inflow of main funds, thereby initiating a real 'altcoin season'.
At that time, it will be a critical window for actively locking in profits.
This is exactly the direction of my current layout.
In this adjustment, I focused on continuously accumulating three types of assets: BTC, SOL, and ETH.
I am particularly optimistic about ETH's technical potential and fundamentals, and I have noticed the increasing interest from institutions. On August 3, a wallet related to Shraplink increased its holdings of ETH by $36 million, which is a testament to this.
In summary, the strategy is clear: view the current volatility as an opportunity to accumulate positions.
The market landscape is evolving, and such a low buying window is unlikely to last long. Now is the right time to gradually build positions and reserve chips, waiting for the opportunities in the market from October to December.
