I. Fundamentals: The intertwining of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and tariff risks.

  1. The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is further strengthened.
    Federal Reserve official Daly stated, 'The labor market is slowing, tariffs only have a short-term impact, and rate cuts are coming soon.' Collins emphasized the need to 'comprehensively assess data uncertainty.' CME's 'Fed Watch' shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has soared to 93.6%, with liquidity easing expectations becoming short-term support for the market.

  2. Tariff policy adds new variables
    Trump announced, 'Possible tariffs on a few countries, with 100% tariffs in the chip sector, domestic manufacturing in the US may be exempt.' Although this policy has not been explicitly implemented, it has raised market concerns about rising supply chain costs, especially posing potential pressure on technology and cryptocurrency-related industries.

  3. Ethereum's on-chain activity is approaching historical peaks.
    ETH's daily trading volume reached 1.87 million transactions, close to the historical peak of 1.96 million transactions in January 2024, indicating a significant increase in on-chain user and developer activity. However, beware of the 'volume-price divergence' risk—an increase in activity has not driven prices to break through, possibly indicating a false bullish signal.

II. BTC Technical Analysis: Weak rebound shows fatigue, 116K is the critical line between bulls and bears.

Market structure and volume characteristics

Currently, BTC is in the adjustment phase after breaking the high-level box, forming a stalemate of 'pressure above, support below':

  • Resistance level: 116K USD (previous box bottom, three peaks at 115.5K in the last three days all pulled back, with evident selling pressure);

  • Support level: 110K USD (the starting point of the rise in early July, overlapping with the MA90 daily moving average, forming strong bullish defense).

Insufficient rebound volume is a core hidden danger: Daily rebound volume shrank by 40% compared to the declining phase, indicating weak bullish confidence and a lack of incremental capital inflow. Without sudden positive stimuli, the short-term is likely to continue a bearish oscillation pattern.

Intraday Operation Strategy

After a peak of 115.5K in the US market on the 4-hour line, it corrected, forming three consecutive bearish candles, currently rebounding slightly at the 114K small platform. Focus on the intraday:

  • The upper pressure zone of 114.8K-115.8K can be an opportunity to lay out short positions;

  • The lower support zone of 113.5K-112.5K, if broken with increased volume, needs to be cautious of further dips to 110K.

III. ETH Technical Analysis: The box oscillation will break, with 3560 as the key defense.

Pattern and Trend Assessment

ETH's daily line is oscillating in the 3600-3700 USD box, with a pattern showing a 'small head structure' (high point 3941 → second high point 3720), and the oscillation range is continuously converging, expecting a breakout choice around Friday.

Volume signals need to be cautious: During the oscillation period, trading volume gently increased, but prices did not break through previous highs, showing obvious volume-price divergence, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment among funds. If the volume decreases and falls below the 3560 USD support (MA30 daily moving average), it may trigger a rapid correction.

Linkage and Operation Plan

ETH, as one of the main forces in this rebound, lacks the volume to continue attacking and needs to rely on BTC's movements: If BTC weakens, ETH is unlikely to hold the 3560 support. The current 4-hour line is correcting at the 3700 USD double top resistance level.

Intraday Strategy:

  • Bearish outlook for the upper pressure zone of 3680-3720 USD;

  • Observe the strength of support in the lower zone of 3610-3570 USD; if it breaks, then focus on the critical level of 3560.

IV. Altcoin Strategy: Mainly maintain cash positions and focus on four major speculative themes.

Currently, trading opportunities in altcoins have not yet emerged, and it is recommended to remain in cash and wait. During the cash holding period, focus on the mainstream themes in the market:

  • AI Concept: A niche market with high technological implementation and funding attention;

  • RWA: Projects with compliance qualifications and substantive asset on-chain progress;

  • L2 Ecosystem: Layer 2 network tokens with continuous growth in on-chain activity and TVL.

  • MEME Coin: Short-term sentiment-driven swing opportunities (need to enter and exit quickly).

Core Principle: Altcoins are 'trading rather than value investing'; strict profit-taking and avoiding prolonged battles are required for swing operations. Contract users can participate in the 'Fan Yong + Free Guidance' activity (up to 40%), learning position management and profit-taking and stop-loss skills, limited to the first 50 participants, to help improve trading success rates.

Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile due to macro policies and sentiment. The above analysis is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Caution is required when entering the market and assessing risks.