“One day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world - today's ETH is staging a 'triangular convergence' drama. The 3751 resistance level is like the college entrance examination score line. Passing it means getting into a top university, and falling below it means having to repeat!”
Technical Analysis: Bulls and bears are "arm wrestling" at 3686
From the 1-hour K-line, ETH/USDT is currently stuck at the key level of 3686, which is like the middle line of a tug-of-war:
Bull Camp: The MACD histogram has started to turn red, indicating that funds are secretly building positions. The earlier pullback to 3735 seems more like a "fake fall," and the main force may want to shake out the less determined retail investors.
Bear Ambush: However, there is a large number of sell orders stacked near the 3751 resistance level, like a wall. If it cannot break through, it may retrace to the 3569 support.
Qingyao's View:
This volatile market is perfect for "grid trading" - place orders around 3686, sell some when it rises to 3751, and buy it back when it falls to 3569. Refer to SOL's trend last week, which also rose sharply by 10%! after three days of sideways trading. ETH may replicate this scenario.
US stock rises ≠ Crypto rises, beware of Trump's "trouble-making"
Today the market is being stirred up by three things:
US stocks open higher (Dow +0.19%): Apple and Shopify surge, which should be beneficial for the crypto market, but big money is now paying more attention to...
US stocks open higher Trump's tariff bomb: Imposing a 25% tariff on India directly stimulates oil prices. If it triggers a global trade war, BTC/ETH may be touted as a "safe haven asset," but short-term volatility will increase.
Imposing a 25% tariff on India Fed personnel earthquake: Trump wants to install his own people in the Fed. If successful, this may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes - which is a long-term positive for the crypto community, but the market is prone to "overinterpretation" in the short term.
Trump wants to install his own people in the Fed
Case Study:
When the Fed changed its head last year, ETH first fell by 15%! and then rose by 30%! within a week. The same scenario may repeat now, don't get shaken out by short-term fluctuations!
Qingyao's View: Keep an eye on these two signals
1. Breakthrough Signal: If it breaks through and stabilizes at 3686 with volume, and the MACD golden cross occurs, you can lightly chase the upside, with targets of 3751 → 3800.
2. Risk Aversion Signal: If it falls below 3569 and doesn't recover within 1 hour, quickly reduce positions, with the next support level at 3500.
Position Management:
Short-term: No more than 20% position, set stop loss below 3650.
Long-term: Buy in batches below 3569, hold and wait for the Ethereum upgrade expectation in September.
“The current ETH is like a top student before the college entrance examination - calm on the surface, but turbulent underneath. Do you want to be a 'dip-buying warrior' or a 'breakout chaser'?#加密股IPO季
