From a high-level perspective, Ethereum has been stuck in a large range for these years, oscillating between 1000 and 4000 from 2022 to 2025. The current issue is that the 4000 mark has been a significant ceiling, becoming the largest ceiling of $ETH . If one day it can truly break through 4000 and hold above it, then the space above will be completely opened up, potentially reaching around 6000.

If this wave of market sentiment cannot hold, and there is a chance of a correction on a monthly level afterwards, then the range of 800-1400 will be a very comfortable area for spot positioning. This is because if so many institutions working together still cannot break the new high for Ethereum in this wave, it will greatly undermine market confidence. If this wave breaks through 4000 and stabilizes, even if there is a major drop later, it might only fall back to around 2000, and it is unlikely to go below 1000 again, as the narratives of ETH and BTC are gradually aligning, which is to be a part of asset allocation among Wall Street institutions. Even in a bear market in the future, a drop of 80-90% like before is unlikely.

In the short term, the 3750 position is quite critical; whether it can break through directly determines if the bulls still have the strength to push upwards. Further up, 3850 is an important checkpoint; if it can get past that, it will aim to create a new recent high (targeting above 3941). Recently it hit around 3735 and was pushed down, indicating that the pressure at 3750 is still present, and the bulls have temporarily lost. Looking further down, 3520 is a defensive line; if it cannot hold even this, then the short-term trend may need to adjust again.