The market in recent days has left me feeling a bit 'overwhelmed'.
On one hand, the overall market structure is frequently giving warnings, while on the other hand, mainstream coins are oscillating repeatedly; short-term rebounds seem strong, but lack substance, and the rhythm of the entire market is starting to feel subtle.
Market structure: Bitcoin's daily line has broken down, weekly line shows a top divergence.
First, let's talk about #Bitcoin.
Structurally speaking, $BTC has now broken below the daily trend line since the high point of 74000, which is a risk signal in itself. An even bigger issue is that the weekly MACD top divergence signal is already clear, a situation that also occurred at the peak of the previous bull market.
This means that the market structure is beginning to shift from 'main rise' to 'high-level oscillation or even distribution', especially now that there is no incremental funding from ETFs, making it hard to rise.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bull flag structure we tracked a few days ago has broken down, and after a failed attempt to break 11436, it has formed a clear downtrend channel.
Yesterday, Bitcoin showed a small head and shoulders bottom rebound structure around 1136; I took a small position long, with two stop levels, but the rebound momentum was too weak, and the second level couldn't break through.
Ethereum performance: Faith overcomes structure, but pressure remains.
$ETH is about the same here—though it has broken through the hourly bull flag, it is being suppressed by an ascending wedge on the 4-hour chart, showing weakness.
From a long-term perspective, last month's monthly line closed with a strong, high-volume bullish candle, and the bulls are still in control; the structure is healthier than BTC.
But the problem is that the market has too high expectations for ETH; once it can't rise, it can easily shift to emotional valuation cuts, leading to a breakdown in the short-term main rise.
Therefore, my strategy for Ethereum is: not to add actively, but also not to short easily, and to continue waiting for a clear direction.
Funding environment cooling: ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days
In the end, the core variable of this round is still 'Is there money to buy?'.
BTC ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive days, with over $200 million flowing out in a single day last night, making it the culprit for this wave of decline. In contrast, ETH's ETF has maintained a mild inflow, which explains why ETH's performance hasn't collapsed like BTC's.
If this funding trend does not reverse, the rebound height is destined to be limited.
Altcoins: The more they fall, the colder they get; liquidity is being siphoned off by the stock market.
#Altcoin's condition can be described as 'falling into silence'.
Looking at the market, the vast majority of altcoins have lost liquidity, and trading volume is almost being propped up by market-making bots. Especially for those new projects with high FDV, retail investors have no confidence to take over.
Current funds are more inclined to speculate on 'coin stocks' and AI narratives—money in the U.S. stock market is much hotter than in the crypto circle, and apart from MEME, it's hard to find new stories that can continuously attract capital.
On the macro front, the market is once again worried about the combination of 'economic stagnation + delayed interest rate cuts'.
Hotspot observation: New ETH coins are emerging, AVAX is revitalizing through oscillation.
Several new projects on the ETH chain have performed well recently, such as:
#bmnr: Currently has the most on-chain holdings, with a clear narrative;
#sbet, #DYNX: Liquidity is gradually increasing, with new funds entering;
#VIRTUAL : Significant daily gains, platform traffic is starting to shift.
Another point worth noting is $AVAX , currently oscillating in a large range of 15.5 to 27, suitable for medium to short-term trading.
Small project news: PAWS is gaining momentum and is worth tracking.
Recently, a new project #PAWS has emerged, with good community engagement and high Twitter topic activity, representing a typical 'small but beautiful' project.
Currently not large in scale, but if there is KOL support or it goes live on a new platform soon, it is expected to enter the hotspot area.
Wishing everyone not to be swayed by market emotions, and to avoid frequently chasing highs and selling lows.
Remember, those who can truly navigate through bull and bear markets rely not on courage, but on a sense of rhythm.
