【Countdown to Bottom! After a 7% violent surge in STRK, is the entry point at 0.1478 or wait for the golden pit at 0.12?】
A market sketch in one sentence:
"Whales have net withdrawn 21M for 7 consecutive days but still can't stop the price rebound, with 0.127 as the value anchor, the bulls and bears are at a stalemate above it, and the short term only has two heartbeat price levels at 0.12 and 0.15."
Key interval structure
1. Value anchorage area (POC): 0.1269, with 160 million units traded in the past two weeks, the selling pressure above is dominant (Down Vol 53.5%).
2. High volume area (HVN):
• 0.1252-0.1278, triple overlapping HVN, forming the first buffer zone;
• 0.1318-0.1329, second buffer, has rebounded three times.
3. Low volume gap (LVN):
• 0.108-0.111, vacuum gap, once it breaks below 0.12, it will accelerate towards this area;
• 0.1413-0.145, upward gap, breaking 0.15 can directly impact 0.17.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.113-0.150, with the current price of 0.1478 close to the upper edge, short-term overbought edge.
Momentum verification
• POC area Up/Down=46/54, bears slightly better;
• 0.141 LVN area Up Vol 100%, if it breaks out with volume, it is considered a bullish start;
• 1h Bollinger Band middle track 0.1472, upper track 0.1534, the opening is narrowing, waiting for direction choice.
Cycle judgment
The mid-term is still in a bear market rebound phase (14-day increase 0%, 30-day increase 0.89%), and the short-term 7-day increase of 17% is a rebound after overselling.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Current price 0.1478, retest 0.146-0.147 within LVN, confirm Up Vol > 60% at 15m close to enter, stop loss at 0.143 (below HVN), target 0.153/0.158, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Conservative: Wait for a retest of POC 0.1269-0.1275, if Pin-Bar + volume appears, stop loss at 0.124, target 0.132/0.138, risk-reward ratio 2.4.
Cautious: After breaking below 0.12, fake break recovery at 0.121 to go long, stop loss at 0.118, target 0.127, risk-reward ratio 2.0.
Risk reminder
If the 1h close falls below 0.143 or Down Vol > 55%, stop loss immediately; macro bearish or BTC flash crash will invalidate the strategy.
LP market making advice
It is recommended to place orders in the range of 0.125-0.132 for market making:
• The range includes POC and two layers of HVN, with dense transactions and low slippage;
• Implied volatility is narrowing, with a slight bullish funding rate, suitable for grid trading to capture the interest rate spread;
• Leave a buffer of 0.005 above and below to prevent false breakouts.
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