When the lock-up announcement turns into a countdown to death, the plunge of Pi coin is not an accident but a script that has long been written - the project party is betting on faith while retail investors are betting on their lives!

I. Technical Disaster: Three Major Signals of Bloodshed

  1. All Key Levels Have Broken

    The Pi coin has fallen below all support levels ($0.70 → $0.59 → $0.33), the weekly chart shows a 'guillotine' pattern, and even the Fibonacci 23.6% resistance level has become a moat. More terrifying is that the daily RSI is only 28 with no rebound, indicating that the market has entered a stage of panic selling.

  2. Liquidity Exhaustion

    On-chain data shows that over 1.2 million Pi has been dumped on exchanges like OKX, but buy orders are as thin as a cicada's wings - like 'pouring water into the desert, instantly evaporating'.

  3. Altcoins Dragging Down

    Public chains like Solana and Polygon have recently surged, with funds collectively fleeing 'zombie projects'. The Pi coin's TVL (locked amount) is only 3% of its peak, and the ecosystem has become a ghost town.

    II. Lock-up Policy: The Last Straw that Broke the Camel's Back

Financial Monthly Perspective:

This operation reminds me of the Luna lock-up in 2023 - similarly a 'high-yield bait', which resulted in a death spiral. The Pi team made three fatal mistakes:

Misjudging the Timing: Forcing lock-up during a price crash is like forcing a drowning person to carry stones

Zero Liquidity Commitment: No unlocking conditions specified, users fear repeating the 'KYC card for a year' scenario

Ignoring Community Fury: 80% of users in China have lost patience due to migration delays, and the lock-up policy has directly ignited the fuse for a disaster

Case Comparison:

When Pi launches in February 2025, the circulating supply will only be 5.5 billion coins, with a brief price spike to $2.1. Now the circulating supply has skyrocketed to 14.7 billion coins + 160 million coins monthly unlocked, leading to a complete imbalance of supply and demand - this is a typical 'project party cutting leeks assembly line'

III. Three Strategies for Retail Investors to Save Themselves

  1. Immediate Stop Loss: If the holding cost > $0.5, decisively cut losses if it rebounds to the $0.45-$0.48 range;

  2. Hedge Risks: Short Pi quarterly contracts on Gate.io (funding rate -0.3%), using short positions to protect spot holdings;

  3. Reallocation: Shift investment to RWA tracks (like ONDO) or AI + blockchain concepts (like RNDR), these are the main lines for institutional layout in the second half of 2025

When the Pi coin drops to $0.1, do you think the project team will have a 'conscience awakening' to initiate a buyback? Stay tuned for @财月女神 for an exclusive revelation next time: Monitoring list of unusual wallet activities of the Pi core team - they always have these three actions before crashing the market!