Last night, Bitcoin and Ethereum had a wave of rapid rises and falls, causing a large number of liquidations, prices returned, but positions were lost. Yesterday, I mentioned that during the day, Bitcoin and Ethereum were primarily shorted. Yesterday's market basically unfolded as Sponge expected. I still hold the short positions from yesterday, and not taking profits in time led to a significant pullback in profits. Sponge expects to take profits between 112000-113000, hoping the market provides an opportunity. Currently, I still hold the long position at 112100, waiting for a surge, short in the short term, long in the long term, waiting for a market shift!
BTC
The battle between long and short positions in Bitcoin is fierce, and the direction is still unclear. BTC has repeatedly dipped to 113,000 USD during the night and encountered a strong rebound from bottom fishing. It may soon test the resistance level of 114,545 USD.
Currently, a pullback has occurred at the hourly level, just near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous wave of increases. If it stabilizes here, it may continue to challenge 116,000 USD. However, be aware that the upper Vegas channel and 116,000 USD form double resistance, making it risky to chase long positions.
Resistance levels: 114545 115248 Support levels: 112884 111655
If it cannot quickly break through 116,000 USD, there are two possible future trends:
① False breakdown leads to true surge: After a quick drop below the previous high support level of 112,000 USD, the price immediately rebounds, forming a 'false break,' triggering short covering and panic selling, achieving a quick reversal. This trend is more rapid and decisive.
② True breakdown, deep correction: Currently, the daily level rise lacks structural support, and the pullback is insufficient, which may lead to a deep correction and drop below 108,000 USD!
Sponge tends to the first type of trend.
ETH
Ethereum found support near 3545 USD, but the depth of the pullback only reached the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and the overall structure still appears weak. Recently, 14 whale wallets collectively purchased 3.16 billion USD of ETH, driving strong performance for Ethereum. Although institutions prefer ETH staking, ETF funds continue to flow out, so market fluctuations need to be monitored. Currently, ETH is testing the 5-day moving average, waiting for the market to recover its previous declines, and the next rebound target may be 3672 USD.
Resistance levels: 3672 3737 Support levels: 3568 3488
Altcoin
At the critical moment of the battle between long and short in the overall market, altcoins have exploded, with MYX skyrocketing 18 times in three days, then quickly halving. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market share continues to decline, showcasing an 'altcoin season'. Meme coins are generally warming up, with hot topics like Troll, House, Neet fully recovering. However, mainstream coins and platform coins are still in correction, indicating a lack of supporting funds in the market and insufficient inflow of new capital.
Under the influence of macro factors such as the US stock market and tariffs, ETH has shown fluctuations and adjustments. It is expected that after mid-August, there will be a market trend towards interest rate cuts in September. The bull market trend remains clear, and all recent pullbacks can be seen as buying opportunities.
Sponge has mentioned several times at the end of June that it is expected that monetary easing will bring about an altcoin season. Unfortunately, Trump did not fulfill the expectation of a large monetary easing in August but instead chose to tighten policies. Everyone should fasten their seatbelts and be vigilant against market fluctuations.
MYX:
MYX is too strong; it has just broken through 2u again. This wave was mostly bought below 0.9 this morning, and it has already doubled. Keep the pattern going; let's get rich quickly!
Many fans are asking when to short?
Looking back at the trend of Banana 31, the price rise basically lasted a week, and the harvesting phase ended in just two days. Today is the fourth day of Myx's increase, and the funding rate has dropped below 2% for the first time.
The funds that previously went long and short on Myx will be cleaned out, and the manipulators will continue to push the price up. Look at how long the upper shadow line of Banana is; at that time, it almost broke into the top 100 by market value, while Myx is still at the 160th position by market value, and there is still upward potential. Today, we will focus on whether it can break through 2.5.
Myx's volatility is quick, and I will update relevant information in the community in real time, so everyone can pay attention.
The secondary spot market is becoming increasingly dull. The dream of achieving tenfold returns has now turned into a struggle to break even! But the road to recovering capital for many coins is still distant. Taking advantage of this sharp drop, I shorted the top three coins in yesterday's rise: Magic, Vine, Kernel.
In the case of a downward trend in the overall market, it may be worth considering shorting altcoins: those coins that have risen 5-10 times in the last two months, have a market value of hundreds of millions yet lack practical application, and the main forces have shown signs of unloading, still at a high position, and new coins that have just been listed are continuing to decline.
Market value expectations, thousandfold return——RGB
The total supply of RGB is 21 million pieces. Based on past experience with new launches, one card can hit 1000, but it could also be 100. We will have to wait until the new launch to find out.
Bitlight Labs, as a regular army in the RGB sector, is currently the absolute leader in the market. The estimated market value is relatively low at an initial value of 21 million. 1 RGB = 1U. If one card can hit 1000, at the current GAS level of about 1U (GAS will increase when launching new tokens), one card = 1000U. A thousand times return is not a dream!!!
Of course, if one card can accept 100, that's fine too, as long as GAS doesn't rise to 100U per card, it can still be considered. The estimated market value of GRB at 21 million is relatively low, and we still need to see the subsequent ecological development.
