That panic drop in the early hours yesterday, I bet many friends were sweating, right? ETH once fell below 3600! Today, we will use this fresh 1-hour candlestick chart, along with the heavy news from this morning (August 6), to analyze ETH's trend today and the details of last night's crash.
1. The truth behind last night's crash: double blow!
Last night's sharp drop was definitely not accidental. Let's look at it from two aspects:
News:
This means the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates has been delayed or even cooled down! They think, 'Oh? The possibility of cutting rates this year is in jeopardy? Money has become more expensive? Then risk assets should run away first!'
Institutions 'playing unfair' with a midnight raid: The news came out just as we were in the middle of the night, and many friends were asleep. These seasoned players in the traditional market, taking advantage of relatively weak liquidity, used futures and derivatives to smash the market, instantly triggering a chain reaction, with long stop-loss orders flooding out, further intensifying the decline. This is called 'precise sniping, taking your life while you're sick.'
Technical aspect:
BOLL middle track lost! Looking at the BOLL indicator in the chart, last night the price sharply broke below the middle yellow track line. For short-term traders, this is like the dividing line between bulls and bears. Breaking below indicates a weakening trend, and bears temporarily have the upper hand.
MACD dead cross 'dead as a doornail'? Looking again at the MACD in the lower sub-chart. The fast and slow lines had already crossed, and the bars not only grew longer but also went deeper down, indicating that the downward momentum is indeed very strong. Technical analysts seeing this signal, many will choose to short or flee.
Overbought warning turned 'solid evidence': Notice at the very top of the chart, it marked 'overbought' near the BOLL upper band. Before the crash, although it didn't reach a particularly severe overbought condition, this signal combined with other indicators had already hinted that the short-term rise was too fast and needed to adjust. As a result, the non-farm data became the fuse that directly triggered it.
Impact: This drop has clearly worsened market sentiment, and panic is spreading. Not only ETH, but Bitcoin and altcoins are also suffering. More importantly, it disrupted ETH's potential rebound momentum and slammed the price back down to the lower edge of a critical oscillation zone. Many people were shaken out, and confidence was hit hard.
2. Today's trend analysis: The lifeline is right in front!
After last night's big fluctuations, from this morning until now, the market has entered a brief 'breathing and oscillation period'. Looking at the chart:
There are signs of stabilization, but they're very fragile: The price is currently oscillating in the small range of 3600-3650. 3600 was smashed last night but quickly pulled back a bit, indicating that there is capital protecting/buying at this level, temporarily holding the short-term small territory. This is the 'lifeline' that needs to be closely monitored today!
MACD shows slight signs of stabilization: Looking at the MACD in the sub-chart, the green bars after yesterday's crash are currently showing signs of gradually shortening. This means that at low levels, selling pressure may not be so fierce for the time being, or some capital is starting to attempt bottom fishing. This is a preliminary and very fragile 'braking' signal.
ROC 'fever' has calmed down a bit? The ROC in the sub-chart, that huge green bar during yesterday's crash has now retreated. Previously, it surged to around 36, which was overly 'excited'; now it has returned to oscillating near the 0 axis, indicating that the speed of decline has temporarily been controlled, but it hasn't turned strong yet.
BOLL middle track is the first major mountain for rebounds: Currently, the price is still firmly pressed below the yellow BOLL middle track. This resistance level is crucial! To truly launch a counterattack, we must break back above the middle track with significant volume. Otherwise, it can only be considered 'lying flat' below the middle track, at any time being kicked down again by bears.
Personal views & strategy suggestions
Short-term: The key is to watch the 3600 defense battle! If today can hold the 3600 fortress area, the market still has some room to maneuver, possibly continuing to oscillate in the small range of 3600-3680. If it effectively breaks below 3600 again, then we really need to be careful about continuing to probe the previous support zone of 3520-3550. Similarly, if it can break above and stabilize at 3680, then the short-term alarm can be temporarily lifted, and bulls may hope to organize a counterattack to 3720 or even higher.
The macro shadow still lingers: the market has not fully digested the negative impact of non-farm payrolls. The Fed's 'hawkish' stance is a sword hanging over the crypto market. So don't get too excited about the rebound.
In operations: Don't rush to bottom fish, be more cautious when chasing gains!
Aggressive: Focus on the support in the 3600-3620 area. If the intraday chart shows signs of stabilization, a small position can be used to bet on an oversold rebound, targeting the resistance zone of 3660-3680. In and out quickly!
Cautious: The best strategy is to wait! Wait until the price effectively breaks above 3680 with strong volume, or see if it can build a double bottom stabilization signal near the previous low after clearly breaking below 3600. Jumping in now carries too much uncertainty and risks getting hit from both sides. Position management comes first!
Summary
Today's keyword for ETH is 'defensive counterattack.' 3600 has become the lifeline, and 3680 is the first hurdle for a counterattack. Last night's non-farm data + institutional midnight sniping are the main culprits of the crash, and market sentiment is severely hurt. Under the macro shadow, operations must be light, cautious, and with stop losses.
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