The longer the sideways movement, the more intense the change! Bulls can't step on the gas, be careful of bears kicking hard. Let's take a look at BTC's afternoon trend.
Old Zhu's analysis:
Technical indicators have 'lost their strength':
Old Zhu glanced at the 30-minute chart; the guys called MACD and RSI are now all droopy and listless, unable to muster any upward momentum. This is like climbing a hill halfway, the engine is panting, and even with the pedal to the metal, the speed won't budge. Thinking of a big surge in the short term? Difficult!
Old Zhu's viewpoint: Such 'weak' signals often indicate a choice of direction, and as it stands, the probability of going down is greater. The last time such a situation occurred (like last Wednesday), it lingered for a while before sliding down.
Trading volume has 'cooled down':
The most critical issue is the trading volume, which keeps shrinking! The big players (whales) are just sitting on the shore munching seeds and watching the show, showing no intention of entering the market. Retail brothers are also disheartened, buying and selling are not active. The market is as quiet as a winter lake; without the stirring of big funds, can this trend rise on its own? Old Zhu doesn't believe it!
Old Zhu's viewpoint: A rebound without volume is just playing tricks, and a rise without volume is even more like a castle in the air. The current situation is a typical 'wait-and-see market'; everyone is waiting for a signal to change.
Volume and price are 'at odds' (divergence):
What's more suspicious is that when the price occasionally bounces up, the trading volume shrinks even more! This is called 'volume-price divergence'. The old saying goes, 'A rise without volume is just a paper tiger.' It’s like you see the stock price rising and want to jump in, only to find that no one is rushing to buy, indicating that this rise is hollow and unreliable!
Old Zhu's case: Remember that small rebound a few days ago? The price crept up while the trading volume plummeted, and what happened? It revealed its true form and fell back within just a few days. History doesn't simply repeat itself, but the lessons must be remembered!
Old Zhu's afternoon thoughts (mainly bearish):
Considering the above three points, Old Zhu thinks the overall direction in the afternoon is still more reliable to be 'bearish'.
How to operate?
If the price is sluggish and creeps up to around 114,300 - 114,800, that's a position to consider 'shorting' (selling short). Why? Because there's heavy pressure here, it's tough to go up, and it has a high cost-performance ratio!
Where to look down?
The first target is to look at the range of 113,300 - 112,500, which is the first important support.
If this range is broken like a layer of window paper (effectively breaking down), then don't hesitate; the space to look down is opened up, and the second target directly aims at the major level of 110,000!
"Brothers who have read Old Zhu's posts, remember: Don't hold onto positions! Stop loss is like a seatbelt; cutting losses is better than a broken arm!" The market specializes in treating all kinds of discontent; if the direction is wrong, quickly recognize it. As long as you have the mountains, you won't fear lack of firewood.
"Is this afternoon's change a subtle decline or a crash? Old Zhu is closely monitoring the market; as soon as there's a breeze or movement, I'll be here chatting! Follow Old Zhu, avoid risks and pitfalls, and we'll see through the matters behind the K-line! Remember to keep your stop-loss in place; we seek victory steadily!"
