In recent days, expectations for 'September interest rate cuts' have rapidly heated up, with the Federal Reserve giving a probability as high as 94%, directly driving the US stock market to open strong—last night it surged at the opening, and the crypto market was also significantly influenced, with high volatility.
ETH leads, BTC follows but under pressure.
ETH ('second pie') surged unexpectedly last night, rising over 170 points in a single day, triggering a large number of short liquidations. In contrast, BTC ('big pie') performed relatively mildly, although it attempted to break through the critical resistance of 115,800 at night, it ultimately failed to stabilize, retreating after the failed surge.
Market sentiment changes: heat recedes, cautious sentiment rises
Leverage risk is prominent: liquidation data is shocking.
In the past 24 hours, over 103,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching $250 million, among which ETH shorts were the main 'victims'. This also reveals a current market hidden danger—excessive leverage use and severe emotional trading.
ETF fund outflows, cold water behind the prosperity.
Although the market performance is lively, from the ETF fund movements, funds are quietly retreating:
BTC ETF net outflow: $320 million
ETH ETF net outflow: $450 million
This means that the current market may just be an 'emotional rebound', lacking substantial support from capital, and risks may be quietly brewing.
Market structure analysis: Beware of the false prosperity before the 'final drop'
Although interest rate cut expectations are being heated up, it is worth noting that:
In the past 30 days, short liquidations reached $17.9 billion, while long liquidations only totaled $10.8 billion.
This indicates that short positions still dominate, and the overall market atmosphere is cautious.
It is expected that there will still be significant adjustment possibilities before August 7, it is recommended to maintain a cautious attitude before then.
BTC trend analysis and strategy suggestions:
Technical level:
First support level: 112,500 (last night's low, important short-term support)
Second support level: 110,200 (historically multiple bottom-testing pin areas)
First resistance level: 115,400 (dense trading area, with a large number of trapped positions)
Second resistance level: 116,200 (high point that has failed to break multiple times)
Operational suggestions:
Thinking: The current trend is slightly oscillating and bearish, focusing on shorting at high positions.
Entry point: It is recommended to set short orders within the range of 114,800-115,400, avoiding chasing shorts.
Take profit: Target towards 112,500 nearby.
Stop-loss: Set above 116,350, and stop-loss immediately on breakout.
Mid-term target: If there is a significant pullback, pay attention to the range of 109,000-108,000, prepare to bottom-fish with spot.
Core logic:
Currently, BTC is repeatedly pressured in the dense resistance area above, coupled with clear signs of ETF outflows, funds are in a defensive mood. If a sudden drop occurs subsequently, it will provide a window for the 'final drop'.
ETH trend analysis and strategy suggestions
Technical level:
First support level: 3,485 (an important defensive level in the daily structure)
Second support level: 3,350-3,325 (previous rebound failure point, support reference)
First resistance level: 3,675 (chip concentration area)
Second resistance level: 3,735 (typical 'false breakout' position, bull-bear divide)
Operational suggestions:
Operational thinking: Gradually build shorts as it approaches the high point, layout in batches to prevent chasing tops.
Entry strategy:
Current price 3,635 can lightly attempt a short position.
If it continues to rise to 3,690, a position can be added.
Take profit level: Target first at 3,485
Stop-loss level: Set at 3,735, decisively stop-loss on breakout.
Risk reminder:
If ETH rises again to the 3,740-3,775 range, consider shorting opportunities again.
Once it breaks 3,785, it indicates structural change, be sure to stop-loss in time.
Core logic:
ETH's current rise resembles a short-term explosion caused by short squeezes, lacking actual positive support. Continuous fund outflows and rising market alertness indicate high risks of short-term pullbacks. Reasonable batch shorting helps control rhythm and risk.
Meme sector observation: Expectations for old coins' recovery are heating up.
Led by Pumpfun and Bonkfun, $Troll has triggered a small climax of old coins' recovery. Although the current heat is limited, there is potential for further development in the future.
Practical opportunity suggestions:
Pay attention to the rebound rhythm after the $Troll hourly line pullback;
If the pullback is confirmed to have ended, consider short-term band intervention;
Utilize the spillover effect of Pumpfun sentiment to discover correlated targets;
If Bonkfun stabilizes, watch for opportunities in leading rebounds (such as $GP, $USELESS).
Strategy summary and risk reminder.
Short-term strategy:
BTC: Place short orders at 114,800-115,400, take profit at 112,500, stop loss at 116,350.
ETH: Try light shorts at 3,635, can add positions at 3,690, take profit at 3,485, stop loss at 3,735.
Bottom-fishing plan:
BTC: If it drops to 109,000-108,000, consider mid-term spot positioning
ETH: If it touches the 3,350-3,325 area, consider accumulating in batches, preparing for the September market.
Risk warning:
Continuous ETF outflows: may exacerbate adjustment pressure
News sentiment reversal: If interest rate cut expectations fall short or are realized prematurely, it may trigger severe volatility.
Possible market inducement: The rapid rise of ETH may be an 'institutional hunt for shorts', be wary of false breakout traps.