Personal suggestions and views on the current market

1. BTC shows slight fluctuations while altcoins collectively plunge; what is the reason?

2. BTC is fluctuating above the 20-day moving average, and the upward trend has not ended; altcoins will also rise again.

3. Do not be disappointed with ETH; if ETH fails, there will be no future for altcoins.

1. Recently, the market has shown significant differentiation: BTC is exhibiting slight fluctuations, while most altcoins have plunged significantly. This differentiation may be related to the current status of some older projects on certain platforms. Taking Binance as an example, after two rounds of bull markets, the chips of its hundreds of early altcoin projects are nearly exhausted. The project parties lack the motivation to continue pushing (as they may have already made substantial profits) and also face the risk of pushing under financial constraints, resulting in weak performance from these older projects.

From observation, the new projects launched on Binance recently are mostly those with a market value of around 100 million, which may be its self-rescue measure to introduce "fresh blood"—the platform might be preparing to position some chips for manipulation. Therefore, in the future, it is important to focus on two categories of targets: first, coins supported by actual value, which are likely to perform better than older projects; second, new projects launched on Binance, which may have the potential for upward movement after a washout.

2. From a technical perspective, BTC is still operating above the upward 20-day moving average, and there is still some space before it breaks below this average, indicating that the time window for upward movement has not yet closed. Currently, altcoins have dropped significantly, and a possible scenario going forward is: BTC consolidating strongly sideways, with altcoins forming a base over several days, then resonating with BTC to move upward again.

3. There is no need to be overly disappointed with ETH. American institutions and publicly listed companies have become significant holders of ETH, and its breakthrough of historical highs may just be a matter of time. As an important "anchor point" for altcoins, if ETH's trend is weak, most altcoins are likely to perform poorly, and even face the risk of going to zero. $BTC $ETH #btc #ETH