Major Announcement, Thursday 04:30 Beijing Time

According to the official schedule released by the White House, Trump will announce news at 16:30 (Thursday 04:30 Beijing Time) in the Oval Office.

The White House has not provided further details regarding this announcement, but such a situation is bound to be significant.

From the timing perspective, it coincides precisely with half an hour after the U.S. stock market closes, and based on past experience, it should be bad news. Similar timeframes have historically been associated with sanctions, trade penalties, policy surprises, dismissals of high officials, and actions that disrupt market expectations.

The three most likely possibilities are:

First, a significant increase in tariffs on India (moderately high probability), citing India's high trade barriers and its purchase of Russian oil (so far this year, India has been purchasing about 1.7 million barrels of Russian crude oil daily). Although there have been previous threats, this time it could be a formal announcement.

Second, the announcement of new nominees for the Federal Reserve Board (moderately low probability but far-reaching impact, as it might be viewed as a candidate for the next Fed Chair). Trump said on Tuesday that a decision would be made before the weekend. However, based on our research on Trump, he is likely to announce at the last moment before the deadline, and it is more likely to happen over the weekend — a very clever timing, allowing the market to digest expectations over the weekend.

Third, implementing 'secondary sanctions' on Russia (lower probability but with context), which would trigger a chain reaction in the global financial system (especially in European stocks, crude oil, and gold prices). However, according to Bloomberg's report, Russia is considering making concessions to the U.S. or proposing an aerial ceasefire with Ukraine. #币安Alpha上新 $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调