Today is August 6, 2025. Let me present the conclusion first: I believe this round of the bull market cycle will end by the end of this year.
Why do I say this? The core reason lies in inflation in the United States. After Trump took office, inflation has shown signs of revival, and the possibility of rate cuts is becoming less likely. In other words, it is almost unrealistic to rely on liquidity injections to support the market in 2026. Therefore, looking ahead from now, Bitcoin may peak in October, and then give altcoins and ETH two months of performance time. December may be the last climax of this wave, followed by a downward trend. All the shows in the crypto space have already been performed, and audiences are gradually leaving, so there is no need for the host to continue this banquet.
You might say that the Federal Reserve might not withstand employment pressure and start injecting liquidity, or that Trump could arrange for his people to handle it. The reality is, the Federal Reserve has done this sort of thing in the past: caring about employment and listening to the president, but it always ended badly. So even if the new chairman is someone Trump chose himself, it is unlikely that he would go all out to prop up the market.
Looking back at this round of the bull market, Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 120,000, which is obviously a bull market. However, if you look at the movements of most altcoins, they resemble a rebound following the crash after the bull market in 2021, rather than a comprehensive bull.
In fact, the real starting point of this round of market was when the Federal Reserve hinted at rate cuts. A large amount of smart money entered the market early, pushing Bitcoin from 15,000 to 40,000. Later, when ETFs were approved, ETF funds entered the market in large quantities, raising Bitcoin from 40,000 to 70,000. Therefore, we can roughly estimate that the average holding cost for American institutions is around 50,000. This period was also the only time in the entire cycle when retail investors could make money. Even during the rate cut period from September to November 2024, retail investors did not make money, and most of the trapped investors should have entered the market during that time. As mentioned above, the earliest cost for American capital was about 50,000, so around January 2025, when Bitcoin reaches 100,000, American institutions will start to sell moderately. At this time, the difference between institutions and market makers becomes apparent, with Bitcoin slowly dropping from 100,000 to 70,000. Although the drop is not large, the trading volume is huge. Seeing the trading data, exchanges and various altcoin market makers think that Americans have fled, leading to a significant drop in altcoins starting at the end of November. After March 2024, retail players in the traditional crypto space were manipulated by the institutional trading strategies of American capital, becoming confused, and there were hardly any new investors to take over altcoins. Therefore, the selling from altcoin market makers was quite aggressive, fearing they would be left with unsold assets. After this, the crypto space has essentially become hollow, with only a bunch of projects lying flat and retail investors trapped in altcoins.
What will happen next? I believe there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. Bitcoin may slowly rise to near its previous highs under the expectation of rate cuts. In November and December, when the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, Bitcoin could surge to 130,000 in October, and altcoins will also be pulled up, but it is likely that they will only reach about half of their historical highs.
By then, the average cost for American institutions will be around 100,000, so they will take advantage of the high prices to sell. However, due to poor liquidity at the end of the year, exchanges, market makers, retail investors, and institutions may all flee together. American institutions may not be able to sell everything off, leaving the remainder to be sold in the next round.
In my judgment, the next cycle will not begin until at least the first quarter of 2027.