In the past few days, the market has shown significant volatility; some people have profited and exited during the rebound, while others have rushed in and got trapped, truly 'mixed feelings'. Which type are you?
Yesterday's rebound of BTC and ETH felt more like a 'panic wave'. I have previously pointed out that the current structure does not support a strong rebound; at most, it is just a corrective oscillation, and there are no conditions for a continued surge. If you are still hoping to bottom out and take off, I'm afraid you will have to experience another round of decline.
Analysis of the short-term and long-term trends of BTC and ETH:
Currently, both lack the momentum for strong short-term breakthroughs. BTC is oscillating around 114K, while ETH is hovering around $3600, appearing strong on the surface but with limited rebound space.
#BTC: The price has touched around $113,000, overall still weak, the 4-hour chart is suppressed by the MA30 moving average, and the daily chart has not shown obvious bottoming signals, it is expected to pull back to around $112,000 today.
#ETH: Although it recently only rebounded to around $3550, its overall performance is relatively strong, currently maintaining above the MA5 moving average. The hourly chart shows a flag formation, but lacks continuous lower shadow line support, still leaning towards a pullback in the short term, focusing on the $3500 support level.
Although the bulls have rebounded, market sentiment has not obviously warmed up, it is recommended to maintain a cautious attitude. What I am more concerned about is if Bitcoin creates new lows, and Ethereum falls below $3500 or even lower, that would be a good opportunity for structural buying.
If you prefer short-term operations on a 4-hour basis, the current safest strategy is to exit once a rebound exceeds 3%. Don't expect to catch a large wave; first, protect your principal.
Altcoins are currently not favored by anyone, but those with potential recently include:
$ASR, #TUT, #SPK (the hotspots remain stable)
#PROVE and #TOWNS (just listed on Binance, the rhythm is subtle, it is recommended to test with a small position)
There are also PUMP, #NEWT, LTC (already laid out, this wave of rebound performs well)
It is essential to remain cautious in the near term, keeping positions controlled within 10% to avoid being trapped.
Currently, noteworthy new projects on the primary chain include:
Focus on tracking #TROLL, $GOR, #SPARK, $DONKEY;
Avoid high-risk $AiMau (many people have already encountered issues) and $BROCCOLI714, the latter's performance is also not good.
Although the rhythm of the primary market is slow, new projects are emerging one after another. Communication + Q: 3359951479, it is recommended to focus on early potential targets that align with your own investment logic.
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has overall declined by 1.6%, with a cumulative drop of nearly 4% this week.
The fear and greed index dropped to 55, and market sentiment quickly cooled. Bitcoin has fallen about 9% from its highs, while most altcoins have generally dropped between 20% and 30%.
The main reason for this drop comes from sudden pressure in the macro environment:
Trump once again releases threats of tariffs
Geopolitical tensions are escalating
The U.S. economic data shows a 'scissors gap', leading to a lack of market direction.
My personal view is that the low point before September may have been forced out by 'panic'.
I do not believe this is a bear market signal, but rather an adjustment wash before the start of a new round of market.
The current key support level is:
BTC is at $110,000
ETH is at $3200.
The key now is to wait for a turning signal, and once confirmed, it means the start of a new upward cycle. History shows that after experiencing significant panic emotions (FUD), the market usually welcomes a significant rebound.
From the M2 growth rate, although the global financial environment has not fully relaxed, it is far from reaching the tightening limit, and the main capital still has considerable room for operation.
My investment strategy is very clear: the longer the oscillation time, the more opportunities there are to buy in batches at low prices.
Currently, large funds are taking advantage of volatility to accumulate. For example, on August 3, a wallet related to Shraplink once again bought 36 million ETH, and today there are also large ETH fund movements.
To summarize: Don't be easily frightened by short-term fluctuations. The real 'altcoin season' has not yet begun, and now is the golden period for you to gradually layout and accumulate.
The market is not directionless, but it requires you to persist in waiting. From August to October, this period is likely to become a key node for gains and losses throughout the year.