Deep Tide TechFlow News, August 6, according to Jinshi Data, SWBC Chief Investment Officer Chris Brigati stated that he remains skeptical about the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates this year. The most likely scenario is that there will be only one rate cut this year, with an even greater possibility of no cuts at all. The Federal Reserve maintains a high level of consistency in its policy communication and approaches the decision-making process with cautious patience. This week, Trump will have the opportunity to appoint a new Federal Reserve board member, which will change the distribution of voting member positions within the Federal Reserve.
Brigati also stated that his core reason for being reserved about rate cuts is the persistent issue of inflation stickiness. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized its high concern for inflation stickiness. Although they have previously downplayed the impact of employment data, their recent attitude seems to have softened. However, unless more clear signs of deterioration in the labor market are seen, the extent of rate cuts will be very limited. Currently, the only limited indicator available is the latest non-farm payroll data, but what is truly concerning is that inflation may remain high or even worsen. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates while inflation remains high or rebounds, it will inevitably trigger a new policy dilemma.