Don't be fooled by Trump's daily calls to fire Powell, but his contract is until May 2026. However, if Trump really wins, Powell might find his seat a bit uncomfortable - you know, an expert Federal Reserve Chairman facing a former president who intervenes in monetary policy through tweets, it's pretty clear who’s in charge.

After all, during Trump's last presidency, his 'fondness' for Powell was written all over his face: he was constantly calling for interest rate cuts, almost treating the Federal Reserve as his Trump Organization's 'financing department.' His thinking was simple and brutal - 'I don't care how you manage the economy, just lower the interest rates and boost the stock market, as long as I feel good about it.'

In short, Trump's view on interest rate cuts is 'Cut! I don't care about inflation, just pump up the market first, and if it blows up, it's the next guy's problem.' By then, a more obedient Federal Reserve Chairman could make FOMC meeting minutes unnecessary; just listen to old Trump: 'Cut the damn rates!'

And don’t forget, Trump is in real estate. Imagine having a wealthy real estate mogul decide interest rates; the scene would probably be: every time Powell hesitates, he’d rush the podium shouting, 'Do you understand loan rates? Do you understand the cost of capital?!'

So even if Powell hasn't left by 2025, the market might very well start trading on Trump's version of 'monetary easing expectations' ahead of time. Imagine a new president, a new conductor, the Federal Reserve’s rhythm could very well shift from the current tightening jazz to low-interest disco, with retail investors dancing, capital markets rocking, regardless of any inflation hangover that may follow.

In short, what’s most concerning in this game isn’t whether or not there will be rate cuts, but whether future monetary policy will rely on X to be announced.