TL;DR: $TREE is under clear short-term bearish pressure. Price near $0.4366 (today’s intraday low $0.4304) has extended a 7-day slide ($0.3256** (~-25.4% from current). A relief bounce could reach $0.4600–$0.4800 (+5–10%) if buyers return with volume. Monitor volume direction, lower-timeframe structure and order-book depth for the next decisive signal. (Not financial advice.)
Market snapshot (from your figures)
Current price: $0.4366 (down ≈ -8.26% today).
7-day change: ≈ -34.89%.
24h volume: 15.54M TREE (turnover ≈ $7.1M).
Implied average traded price = $7,100,000 / 15,540,000 ≈ $0.4569 (this suggests heavier trading slightly above the current spot).
Volume moving averages (short term): 5-period VMA ≈ 895.76K, 10-period VMA ≈ 863.47K — these are volume MAs (not price MAs) and they’re beginning to widen, showing higher recent participation on sell days.
Structure & technical read
Trend: Short-term downtrend — consistent series of lower highs and lower lows. The 1-hour chart shows repeated rejection from the $0.4858–$0.5238 area and price currently tracking inside a descending channel.
Immediate support: $0.4240–$0.4300 (intraday swing low $0.4304). If buyers defend this zone we can expect short relief rallies.
Immediate resistance / supply: $0.4858–$0.5238 — multiple rejections here make this a decisive sell zone. A clean, volume-backed break above it would invalidate the short bias.
Measured breakdown target: Channel height ≈ $0.5238 − $0.4247 = $0.0991 → projected target below support $0.4247 − $0.0991 ≈ $0.3256. That’s ~25.4% lower than current price.
Relief bounce zone (if support holds): $0.4600–$0.4800 (short covering / weak-hands resistance). That’s roughly +5.4% to +9.9% from current price.
Volume & order-book read
Volume profile: The last 24h shows increasing red volume bars — sellers controlling the short term. The short-term VMAs widening indicates heavier average volume on recent bars (seller participation is meaningful).
Order book: Near parity (you noted ~49% bids / 51% asks) — that reads as indecision with a small sell tilt. That means large trades or a spike in selling could push price quickly through the nearby support if defensive bids aren’t reinforced.
Momentum & indicators to watch
RSI / Stoch / MACD (short timeframes): If the 1-hour RSI remains below ~40, bearish momentum is reinforced. Watch for bullish divergence (price making lower lows while RSI does not) — that’s a possible early sign of relief.
ATR: An expanding ATR on downside candles confirms the move has conviction; contracting ATR with falling price suggests exhaustion.
On-chain / flow signals to monitor (if available): exchange inflows, large wallet transfers, funding rates and open interest (for perpetuals). Rising exchange inflows + worsening funding is a bearish combo.
Practical trade scenarios & rules
Bear case (high probability while price < $0.4858):
Trigger: Clear break below $0.4240 on high selling volume OR failure on a retest of $0.4240 as resistance.
Target: $0.3256 (measured), with intermediate support at psychological $0.40 / $0.36 levels.
Risk control: initial stop loss above recent local supply (e.g., above $0.435–$0.445 depending on timeframe) and position size to risk ≤ 1–2% of capital.
Bull / relief case (lower probability until structure changes):
Trigger: Strong, sustained reclaim of $0.4858 with rising buy volume and follow-through into the $0.50+ area. Or a bullish reversal candle pattern on the 1H/4H confirmed by volume shift.
Target: relief to $0.4600–$0.4800 first, then retest of the $0.4858–$0.5238 range.
Risk control: stop below the swing low of the reversal candle(s).
Scalp / intraday: trade lower-timeframe structure only — wait for clear support holds, micro-structure breakouts, and confirmation with volume. Tight stops and small size.
What I removed / corrected
I clarified that the MA numbers you provided (895.76K / 863.47K) are volume moving averages, not price MAs. Saying “MA(5) at 895.76K” as a price MA would be incorrect — I corrected that ambiguity.
I replaced vague statements like “moving averages are bearish” with actionable directional reads (trend, channel, VMAs widening).
I added a calculated measured breakdown target and implied average traded price (turnover / volume) so the post contains verifiable, useful metrics.
Bottom line
$TREE’s short-term bias is bearish until proven otherwise. Watch $0.4240–$0.4300 closely — it’s the line in the sand. A decisive break risks a fast drop toward ~$0.3256; a defended support with a visible volume shift could produce a relief bounce toward $0.4600–$0.4800. Trade with defined stops and watch order-book / volume dynamics for confirmation.
