🧠 One, Project Introduction and Application Scenarios
ENA is the native governance token of the Ethena protocol, supporting the system design of its delta-neutral synthetic stablecoin USDe, allowing token holders to participate in governance, earn staking rewards (sENA), and support cross-chain asset security and DeFi composite applications.
USDe adopts spot and perpetual contract arbitrage strategies to achieve anchoring to the US dollar, and the profits will be used to buy back ENA, establishing a value closed loop.
📊 Two, Price and Market Overview
The current price is around $0.50–$0.60, with a market cap of $3–4 billion and a circulating supply of about 630–660 million, with a total supply cap of 1.5 billion.
Recently, after experiencing multiple fluctuations, the price has risen after breaking the $0.45 resistance, peaking at $0.60, but still has a certain gap from the historical high of $1.52.
⚙️ Three, Token Economics and Unlocking Risks
The distribution of ENA is as follows: Core team 30%, investors about 20–25%, foundation 15–20%, ecological incentives 30%; with lock-up and linear release design to ensure long-term stable development.
The impending unlocking of a large number of tokens may trigger selling pressure, and the risk of short-term supply-demand imbalance pushing down coin prices cannot be ignored.
📈 Four, Technical Aspects and Market Momentum
After breaking the three-month downward trend resistance in May, there has been a short-term rebound; key resistance remains concentrated around $0.45–0.50.
Analysis indicates that ENA has accumulated over $100 million by large holders on Binance, forming support. If resistance is broken, there is a chance to rise to the $0.90–1.00 range.
Another predictive model, CoinCodex, shows that in the short to medium term, it may retrace to $0.30–0.40, gradually rising after mid-2026, with an average price in 2030 possibly reaching $1.20–1.75.
🔍 Five, Major Risk Review
USDe profit strategy recession risk: The high annual yield of USDe has dropped from over 60% early on to below 5% now; if the funding rate continues to decline, arbitrage profits may sharply decrease.
Selling pressure risk: With a large amount of ENA unlocking, if there is not enough market demand to support it, the price may come under pressure.
Benchmarking Terra system risk concerns: Although Ethena emphasizes that its trading strategy is delta-neutral, the structure and algorithm are similar to Terra's stablecoins, and there are still risks of market sentiment reversal causing a crash.
.
Counterparty risks in contracts and custody: The agreement involves cross-chain and custodial exchanges, and if there are counterparty risks or liquidation mechanisms go out of control, it may impact stability.
✅ Comprehensive View and Investment Recommendations
Potential highlights: An innovative stablecoin model (USDe), high liquid TVL growth, and high integration with DeFi construction; if executed well, ENA's long-term value can be expected.
Entry timing suggestion: Consider using a dollar-cost averaging strategy when the price adjusts to the support level (about $0.30–0.40); closely monitor USDe TVL growth, token unlocking rhythm, and changes in market sentiment.
Warning signals: If the funding rate continues to turn negative, or arbitrage profits shrink below market expectations, or there is a rapid exit of long positions, consider reducing positions or exit strategies.
