August 5th Market Analysis:
Bitcoin's intraday market first rose and then fell, with a slight rebound in the evening due to insufficient momentum, subsequently coming under pressure, with a minimum breaking through the 113,000 mark. This once again verifies our intraday plan, easily capturing over 1,600 points of space. Ethereum was close to 100 points; though not much, it was very stable. It is important to know that stability is particularly crucial in the cryptocurrency market. In the cryptocurrency market, we must remain true to our principles. The market's volatility is intense, but we should not be influenced by it or be led by the market;
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin continues to close with bullish candlesticks around 115,000 on the daily chart, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to open downward. The MACD moving averages continue to point downward, and short positions are starting to decrease. The KDJ indicator is gently moving downward. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have started to run flat, the MACD moving averages continue to rise, and long positions are beginning to decrease, while the KDJ line is moving downward.
Ethereum continues to close with bullish candlesticks around 3,720 on the daily chart, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to close upward. The MACD moving averages continue to point downward, and short positions are starting to decrease. The KDJ line has begun to move upward. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are starting to open upward, with the MACD moving averages continuing to rise, and long positions beginning to decrease while the KDJ line moves downward. Currently, Bitcoin's daily rebound has touched 115,713 and then retreated to around 114,700, which are the two support levels from the previous daily oscillation bottom and have not yet been broken. The rebound is relatively weak, but the 4-hour descending wedge has retraced, so the breakthrough of these two resistance levels is necessary for further upward movement; from the overall trend structure, the market shows a clear bearish dominance characteristic. The previous large bearish retracement performed strongly, directly breaking through the key resistance level of the middle Bollinger Band without hesitation, highlighting the strength of the bearish force. The intraday rebound instead provides the market with a space correction opportunity, allowing the bears to better accumulate strength and laying the foundation for subsequent breakouts and deep retracements. Currently, the technical shape indicates that the lower Bollinger Band has gradually opened downward, suggesting that the downward space is about to further open. Combined with the current trend momentum and structure, the probability of the market breaking the 110,000 mark this week is extremely high, and the bearish trend is expected to continue deepening.
Bitcoin: Short around 113,000-113,500, target 112,000-111,400
Ethereum: Short around 3,570-3,590, target 3,520-3,480
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