XRP has approached the 4 USD mark twice in 2025, with the most recent peak at 3.65 USD in mid-July. The current price is around 3 USD, needing to increase by another 33% to reach 4 USD before 2026 – a completely feasible target if certain conditions are met.
1. XRP Follows Bitcoin
XRP has a high correlation with Bitcoin (0.88 over 1 year, 0.86 over 1 month). If BTC reaches 200,000 USD as forecasted by Bernstein, Standard Chartered, or Citigroup, then a 33% increase in XRP is a reasonable scenario.
2. New Price Increase Drivers
Factors that previously supported the increase:
SEC loosens the lawsuit against Ripple
Rumors of XRP ETF
Expectations for XRP to become a reserve asset
Currently, the wave of companies adopting a 'digital treasury' strategy could be the next catalyst if Ripple expands its role similar to MicroStrategy.
3. Forecasts from Financial Organizations
Kalshi: 42% chance XRP will reach 4 USD before 2026
Standard Chartered: Forecast 5.50 USD this year
4. Risks: US Trade Policy
Trump's new tariffs (effective 1/8) put pressure on risky asset markets. Speculative cash flow could be 'tightened' if the US economy fluctuates unpredictably.
5. Investment Perspective
Venture investors: XRP is an attractive opportunity if one believes in a new bullish cycle of Bitcoin.
Cautious investors: Should observe Bitcoin and macro policies before allocating funds.
In summary: XRP has the potential to reach 4 USD if Bitcoin breaks out. However, in the short term, the market still needs strong catalysts and policy stability to support a sustainable upward trend.