News - timeline strike.
August 5, 20:20 PANews exclusive: Trump clearly stated 'may soon announce a new Federal Reserve chairman', directly naming Waller and Hassett as two major candidates. Note! Waller has publicly advocated for rate hikes to curb inflation; upon this news, the dollar index surged 0.3% instantly.
20:15 price anomaly: BTC/USDT experienced a sudden drop of 367 points within 5 minutes before the news broke; on-chain data shows that a certain institution's wallet sold 2300 BTC in advance, this is definitely not a coincidence!
Historical comparison: when Powell's reappointment was announced in 2021, BTC had a daily volatility of over 8%; the current market sensitivity to monetary policy has reached red alert.
Technical - death cross formation.
15-minute chart reveals a death triangle: MA7 crosses below MA25 forming a death cross, 114800 has become new resistance, MACD histogram has seen a continuous decline for 6 consecutive bars.
Volume alert: trading volume surged 300% from 20:00 to 20:30, but the price fell below 114500, a typical 'heavy volume breakdown' pattern.
Key level game: 115800 resistance has been tested 3 times without breaking, while 113400 below is weekly support; tonight one side must face liquidation.
Top strategy from Dragon.
Bullish doomsday scenario:
If Trump nominates a dovish candidate, BTC will violently surge past 115800, target 117200, but must strictly set a stop loss at 113900.
Bearish celebration route:
If Waller is nominated, BTC will break through the 113400 support; first target is 112000, second target is 110800. Best shorting point is 114300, stop loss at 115000.
Neutral faction interference:
If Hassett is chosen, the market will be trapped in the range of 114200-115500, suggesting to short high and long low.
Candlestick market:
Exclusive forecast from Dragon.
Key time window from 21:00 to 24:00 on August 5:
At 21:30, the US non-manufacturing PMI will be announced; if the data > 55, it will reinforce rate hike expectations.
At 22:00, comments from Federal Reserve officials may leak hints.
At 23:00, CME futures opening may show a gap.
Ultimate conclusion from Dragon.
I clearly hold a bearish view! There are three reasons:
Technical triple top structure formed, 115800 has become an 'iron top'.
News is leaning hawkish; if Waller takes office, it will replay the 'taper tantrum' massacre of 2018.
On-chain data shows whales are continuously depositing into exchanges, with the maximum pain point for options expiring on August 6 at 112000.
Tonight's operation: open a short position directly at the current price of 114500, stop loss at 115100, first target at 113000! Remember, when the White House starts discussing the Federal Reserve, it's time for investors to buckle up!
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