Bitcoin has recovered above 114,000 USD after hitting a low near 112,000 USD over the weekend. Despite facing strong technical resistance, institutional investors are still actively accumulating. However, the negative seasonal trend in August continues to exert short-term pressure, lowering expectations to the 105,000 USD area.
August: Periodic Concerns for Bitcoin
Data from 2017 shows that Bitcoin recorded an average loss of 11.4% in 5 of the last 7 Augusts. If historical trends repeat, BTC price could drop to 105,000 USD — which is also the bottom of the ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart of the Bitstamp exchange. Breaking this support could undermine the long-term bullish outlook and trigger a deeper correction.
Conversely, if BTC holds the trend low and recovers the 115,000 USD mark, the market could reset its upward momentum, with the next target at 125,000 USD. The developments in the next few sessions will play a decisive role for the remainder of Q3.
Reestablished 'Bull Flag' Structure
Despite the bleak outlook for August, Bitcoin has returned inside the 'bull flag' pattern — a signal reinforcing the recovery trend. According to the chart from Crypto Rover, BTC is trading around 114,500 USD and holding above the 112,000 USD area, opening up the possibility of rising to 118,000 USD.
Additionally, the TD Sequential indicator on the 12-hour frame has signaled a '9' buy, which often appears after a strong correction — indicating that selling momentum has exhausted. This signal forms right above the 112,000 USD support, increasing the likelihood of a short-term reversal.
However, the 115,000 USD threshold remains an important barrier. According to analyst Captain Faibik, BTC needs to close firmly above this level to establish an uptrend towards 118,000 and beyond 125,000 USD.
If it cannot break through, the price may continue to fluctuate below the macro resistance area.
Organizations Continue to Accumulate Amid Volatility
In the context of a volatile market, Metaplanet — a Japan-based investment company — purchased an additional 463 BTC (worth about 53.7 million USD) on August 4, with an average price of 115,895 USD/BTC. To date, the total amount of BTC held by the company has reached 17,595 units, placing Metaplanet among the top 7 publicly listed organizations holding the largest Bitcoin reserves globally, with a portfolio worth over 2 billion USD.
Successful Retest of the 112,000 USD Breakout Area
According to analysis from IncomeSharks, the recent correction has returned to test the breakout area of 112,000 USD — and this support has held firm. The chart shows a narrow uptrend channel being established, with the support line starting from the April low, now at around 114,700 USD.
As long as BTC trades above this trend line, accumulation sentiment remains optimistic. IncomeSharks expects the price could move towards the 124,000 USD area if the current trend continues. In the short term, the outlook remains bullish as long as the 112,000 USD area is not broken.
